Rice with dash of salt

Using rice as a political commodity has its disadvantages in the long term, since it would take considerable resources to subsidize low prices against the market trend.

Sustainability is the question, as policies should be designed for long-term food security and economic stability, not short-term electoral gains.

Subsidies to keep rice prices at the recently introduced level cannot be maintained post-election without significant fiscal resources. According to an economist, an increase in prices after the May 2025 elections will merely result in a public uproar.

Market players worry that government interventions, such as the previous price caps and subsidies, lead to supply shortages and do not address underlying issues like low agricultural productivity or import dependency.

The Philippines, which relies heavily on imported rice, faces ongoing risks of global price volatility and supply chain disruptions. This makes the political promise of cheap rice risky, as it does little to address the need for sustainable local production.

A quick fix causes many market distortions. Sustainable practices, such as Vietnam’s use of sensors and water pumps to reduce water use, require long-term investment.

Rice can yield short-term political gain by appealing to voters’ immediate needs during the run-up to the 12 May elections. Still, if promises are unmet, it risks economic distortions, fiscal strain, and a public backlash.

The subsidized rice will mainly come from the National Food Administration (NFA) buffer stocks.

As of April, the NFA reported stocks of 358,000 metric tons, or 7.16 million 50-kilogram bags, of reserves equivalent to 9.36 days of national consumption, the highest since 2020.

The NFA aims to increase this to a 15-day supply, requiring an additional 300,000 metric tons of palay at an estimated P23 per kilo.

In the first quarter, the NFA procured 2.2 million sacks of palay worth P2.6 billion from local farmers, emphasizing support for small-scale producers through an expanded fast-lane program, which now accommodates farmers up to 70 bags.

An economist warned that such a policy is unlikely to be sustainable due to its reliance on temporary subsidies, market disruptions, and neglecting long-term agricultural and environmental challenges.

A focus on market-oriented reforms, sustainable farming practices, and crop diversification is needed for long-term results.

The staple grain generates economic and political fortunes in the Philippines.

Filipinos feel they haven’t eaten if the meal didn’t include rice, indicating the broad implications of manipulating the market, which is already liberalized through rice tariffication.

Liberalization should allow market forces to dictate production and pricing.

Adopting sustainable farming methods or climate-resilient rice varieties could align political goals with long-term food security. Vietnam’s success in sustainable rice production offers a model.

Doubts are raised about the unsustainable subsidized rice prices because they target only specific regions, like the Visayas, and are not driven by market dynamics.

The Philippines’ reliance on rice imports and vulnerability to global supply shocks, such as India’s 2023 rice export ban, make such policies risky without addressing structural issues like low domestic production.

Historical examples of other nations, like Indonesia, where rice was used to sway voters, show that the scheme often led to economic strain or unmet expectations.

Alternatives that align with long-term goals, such as investing in increased rice production and ensuring that farming methods become climate-resilient, should be prioritized.

Political will must be exerted to ensure that policies on the staple grain go beyond electoral cycles.

Public skepticism is high, and election-driven policies risk backfiring, potentially creating more significant problems that will outweigh any short-term gains.