When watching the videos of YouTube content creator, Gadget Addict, it is apparent that there are more motorcycle riders who are caught violating the EDSA busway rules. This represents an anomaly considering that in November 2023, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) raised the minimum fine for the violation to P5,000 (first offense) from the previous P1,000.

Under the rules, other than buses, use of the EDSA busway is limited to the President, Vice President, Senate President, House Speaker and Chief Justice. Also exempt from the ban are on-duty ambulances, fire trucks and police vehicles.

More motorcycle riders being caught on the busway is an anomaly by economic theory because the penalties should be more painful for them. At the risk of generalizing and profiling, most of the violators in the videos have motorcycles that are under 400cc, the so-called big bike category.

With smaller engines, these motorcycles are less expensive and are aimed at a lower income segment of the market. The minimum penalty alone is likely higher than the monthly amortization of these motorcycles if they were financed at the max of 36 months.

If incomes are the basis, the loss/risk is larger for the typical EDSA traversing motorcycle rider and should dissuade them from playing roulette with the MMDA at each chokepoint.

Why then do more motorcycle riders risk the busway gauntlet compared to four-wheel drivers?

There is a 1960 paper by H. Laurence Ross that describes highways as a special social situation where drivers interact with each other. In other words, when you get on the road, you join a social network where communication is made through signals such as horns and lights, and how you drive.

In the stock market, investors look at other investors and how they are behaving, particularly what they are buying or selling. These are the signals that investors send out to their networks.

One model that explains how signals in a social network of investors can create a stock market bubble is the information cascades model. When faced with uncertainty or lack of information, this model suggests that investors would use the actions of other investors as the basis for their own decision. In other words, under certain conditions, investors mimic other investors — even if it is not a rational thing to do.

Motorcycle riders may behave the same way as investors, copying other riders’ actions, particularly when they do not know if the Department of Transportation Special Action and Intelligence Committee for Transportation (DoT-SAICT) is lying in wait somewhere down the road.

Under information cascades, if one rider takes the risk and enters the busway, and another follows, there is a big likelihood another rider will follow, and then more riders will join and form this cascade of busway violators that, if the DoT-SAICT is operating in the area, ends up getting caught.

But why is this not applicable to four-wheel vehicles? Well, it is still applicable. However, it is possible that car drivers are more likely to police themselves by preventing an erring fellow driver from reentering the regular lanes. In contrast, motorcycles can easily filter back into the lanes and not worry about social network etiquette.

If this is the case, how can we help EDSA busway compliance and reduce the fines for motorcycle riders? One way to reduce information cascades is to disrupt the signals emitted by the first and second delinquent riders.

An example of this is when farmers deploy scarecrows to signal to birds that someone is watching the fields even though no one is. Scarecrows are aimed at augmenting animal behavior.

Similarly, setting up warning images or signs in areas where a cascade can start may be a more effective deterrent, enhancing the effectiveness of fines, and limiting the abuse of the EDSA busway.