CEO confidence nosedives as recession fears spike amid Trump tariff chaos
New data shows 62% of U.S. CEOs now expect an economic downturn as tariff turmoil rocks markets and inflation fears surge
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street on 17 April 2025 in New York City.
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A rising wave of anxiety is gripping America’s boardrooms as more than 60 percent of the country’s top executives now predict a recession or economic slowdown within the next six months. That’s according to Chief Executive’s monthly CEO Confidence Index, released Monday, which paints a grim picture of business sentiment as the fallout from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade moves continues.
In April, 62% of surveyed CEOs said they expected either a mild recession or a severe one, up sharply from 48% in March. The stark rise reflects growing unease across corporate America as new tariffs, retaliatory duties, and geopolitical volatility batter supply chains and financial markets.
The Chief Executive data visualized by CNBC shows that in April, 48% of respondents foresee a mild recession or slowdown, while 14% brace for a severe downturn. In contrast, only 4% expect strong growth.
CEO sentiment shifts sharply — A side-by-side comparison of survey data from March and April 2025 reveals a growing consensus among U.S. CEOs that a recession is imminent. The share expecting a mild or severe downturn jumped from 48% to 62% in just one month.
Charts created from data from Chief Executive Group website.
“Economic anxiety is accelerating,” the report notes, adding that the index of CEOs’ current business condition views fell another 9% in April, following a 20% plunge in March. The index now sits at its lowest point since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The escalating pessimism comes just days after Trump’s administration rolled out sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. Though smartphones and PCs have been temporarily exempted from import duties, most sectors continue to brace for rising costs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the reprieve on tech products would be short-lived.
Among the survey’s most sobering data points:
Over 80% of CEOs now expect operating costs to increase in 2025.
About half of them predict double-digit expense hikes.
Only 37% believe their company profits will increase this year, down from 76% in January.
“There’s no hiding from the impact of tariffs and rising uncertainty,” said one executive, anonymously quoted in the survey.
Even financial giants are sounding the alarm. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned last week that earnings estimates across the S&P 500 may start falling, while BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC that the U.S. economy might already be “in a recession.”
Still, not all the data is bleak. Slightly over half of respondents said they expect business conditions to improve over the next 12 months, up from just 39% in March. Whether that optimism holds in the face of rising geopolitical risk and inflation pressures remains to be seen.