Japan rice prices nearly double, boosting inflation

The price of rice has surged in recent months, prompting Japan’s government to release part of its emergency stockpile into the market. The country’s internal affairs ministry reported that grain prices rose 25.4 percent overall, with rice alone logging a massive 92.5 percent increase, largely due to a shortage of the staple.

Excluding fresh food, consumer prices rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in March, up from 3.0 percent in February. This figure was in line with market expectations.

When excluding energy, prices increased 2.9 percent last month, up from 2.6 percent in February. Overall inflation eased slightly, from 3.7 percent in February to 3.6 percent in March.

The data may heighten expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates, as inflation has been above the BoJ’s target of 2 percent for almost three years. However, uncertainty related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies could lead the central bank to maintain its current stance for now.

Factors contributing to the rice shortage include poor harvests due to hot weather in 2023, panic buying spurred by a “megaquake” warning last year, and a rise in consumption from a record number of tourists. Some traders are also believed to be hoarding rice.

In response, the Japanese government began auctioning its rice stockpile last month, marking the first time since 1995. Authorities have so far released about 210,000 tonnes and plan to auction an additional 100,000 tons later this month.

Rice has also played a role in the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and Japan. The White House has accused Japan of imposing a 700 percent tariff on U.S. rice imports, a claim Japan’s farm minister has called “incomprehensible.” U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports, including rice, remain paused for now.

In addition to rice, cabbage prices surged by 111.6 percent in March compared to the same month last year. The increase is attributed to last summer's extreme heat and heavy rainfall, which ruined crops and led to what the media has dubbed a “cabbage shock.”

The rising food prices have placed additional pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government to take action to support consumers.