Growth in the first quarter will likely hit six percent, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said.

“Six percent is still not far for the first quarter. The inflation factor is a major driver, and interest rates also declined,” Balisacan said in a media briefing on Monday.

Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the positive forecast is slightly higher than the 5.9 percent expansion a year ago.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee projected an average growth of 6 to 8 percent this year.

The actual growth figure for the first quarter will be announced on 8 May. Due to slower inflation last month, at 1.8 percent, or better than the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ minimum target, Balisacan said household consumption must have risen from the 4.7 percent seen in the last quarter of 2024.

“The main source of growth for the first and second quarters is consumption. Global oil prices have been lower than expected, which should support stronger household spending,” he said.

National statistics show that overall inflation was 1.8 percent, the lowest since the pandemic, and it was mainly driven by cheaper rice.

Balisacan added that the Central Bank’s lower policy rate for lenders, at 5.5 percent from 6.5 percent in April last year, should already be having a stronger effect on increasing households’ appetite for consumption.

However, Balisacan said a sub-6 percent economic growth in the first quarter would reflect lower investments as investors still wait for definitive tariff policies from US President Donald Trump.

“Investments and exports are the weak points because of this uncertainty in the global economy,” he said.

“The lower end of the growth forecast is achievable but conditional. I’m hoping things will not deteriorate,” Balisacan continued.

Balisacan said export receipts could grow by 1.5 percent from less than 0.5 percent if the government successfully negotiates for a lower tariff and other countries redirect exports of cheaper materials away from the US.

Trump ordered a tariff baseline of 10