March inflation likely at 1.9% — economists

Economists project overall inflation for this month to hit at least 1.9 percent due to higher fuel prices in recent days but the increased supply of food products.

The minimum outlook is slightly better than the February inflation of 2.1 percent based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort said prices of vegetables and similar agricultural goods improved amid better weather characterized by some rains in the first quarter of the year.

"For instance, the price of local tomatoes declined dramatically in February amid supply glut in some areas in Northern Philippines, thereby could have helped ease inflationary pressures," he told Daily Tribune in a Viber message.

Ricafort added that rice prices must have continued to decline amid the implementation of a lower tariff on imported rice at 15 percent from 35 percent.

Rice prices fall

"We've seen world rice prices at the lowest in more than 3 years or since November 2021," the economist said.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said rice prices in local markets have declined to P45 per kilo from a peak of P64 per kilo.

Ricafort also said prices of other commodities have decreased as China's economic slowdown weakens demand for various goods.

"Other global commodity prices are among the lowest in three to four years amid softer economic data in China, the world’s second biggest economy and biggest importer of oil and other major global commodities," the economist said.

"This would help support relatively benign inflation in many countries around the world," Ricafort continued.

He said the stronger peso against the US dollar must have also helped cut prices of imported goods as the local currency has appreciated by 1.4 percent or below P57.9/$1.

Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co. which is a financial services firm, said March inflation could slightly grow to 2.3 percent.

He shared this outlook after domestic oil companies announced price hikes from March 25 to 31.

Gasoline prices have risen by P1.10 per liter, while diesel prices have increased by P0.40 per liter. Kerosene has also been sold higher by P0.40 per liter.