Mayday protest vote

Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which happened close to the May 2025 midterm elections where 12 of 24 Senate seats are up for grabs, could reshape the senatorial landscape.

Duterte remains a polarizing figure as his signature “war on drugs,” the basis for the Tribunal’s action, is credited by supporters for addressing crime and corruption, earning him a sustained level of popularity among several segments of the population.

Critics, however, viewed it as a brutal campaign responsible for thousands of extrajudicial killings, primarily of the poor.

The political divide is also written within this sphere.

The ICC action executed against Duterte would bring supporters to rally around him seeing clear foreign interference.

This could bolster candidates aligned with the Duterte family, such as those from the former President’s PDP-Laban party and supporters of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte.

A given is that the arrest would be seized upon by human rights advocates and the victims’ families as a step toward accountability, which administration candidates will be banking on.

The split that would be reflected in the voting in May would have as a pivotal backdrop the severed ties of the Marcos and Duterte families, once allies under the “UniTeam” banner.

The administration’s recent openness, or even welcoming mood, despite the Philippines’ withdrawal from the ICC in 2019 will be a factor in the polls.

With the still strong public support for the former president, the administration should navigate to avoid a backfire on their candidates or fueling a backlash, boosting a protest vote that would benefit Duterte-backed candidates.

The May 2025 midterm polls are already shaping up into a proxy war between the Marcos and Duterte camps.

The arrest turns the election into a referendum on Duterte’s legacy and on the leadership of the incumbent.

In turn, the outcome of the senatorial polls would be significant for the looming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.

A two-thirds Senate vote (16 of 24 senators) is needed to convict VP Duterte in the trial, set to begin in July.

The arrest of her father could sway undecided voters, either toward or against her, affecting the election of senators who will decide her fate.

In Duterte strongholds like Davao, the arrest will galvanize local support for his family’s candidates, while in urban centers like Manila, where criticism of the drug war is stronger, it could favor administration figures.

Duterte’s swift bundling off to The Hague is dominating the campaign narratives, overshadowing other issues like the economy and infrastructure that amplify emotional responses from voters.

The former Chief Executive’s defiance of the ICC taps into nationalist sentiments, with many Filipinos viewing the court as an outsider meddling in sovereign affairs.

Such a narrative of defiance resonates with voters wary of foreign influence, enhancing his slate’s electoral chances while possibly ingraining views that the current dispensation bows to international pressure even if it is framed within the context of cooperation as a legal obligation.

Loyalty to an embattled leader, or what is known as the martyrdom effect, can sway Filipino voters more than policy debates.

The Duterte candidates would likely leverage defiance and victimhood while the administration bets would emphasize the rule of law and stability.

The event which is being played up on the global stage would be pivotal for roughly 70 million registered Filipino voters, many of whom remain undecided on whom to pick in the elections.

The ICC arrest would ignite the May 2025 senatorial elections into a high-stakes partisan clash.

The outcome will hinge on who will win the narrative: Duterte as a persecuted hero or the administration as a steady reformer.

With a Senate that could reshape the next three years, the arrest’s ripple effects would be profound, likely favoring Duterte’s camp short-term but risking their long-term erosion if justice prevails in the public eye.

We might just see another shut-out similar to that in the 2019 polls when the Otso Derecho Senate slate of the yellow mob was completely wiped out.