The Philippines has always been a country where history seems to echo across generations. From colonial rule to dictatorship, from revolutions to democratic transitions, patterns of political power struggles repeat in uncanny ways.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest upon his return from Hong Kong Tuesday immediately drew comparisons to the ill-fated homecoming of former Senator Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. in 1983, which ultimately led to the downfall of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and the People Power Revolution of 1986. But is this just a historical coincidence, or is the country once again heading toward another major political shift?

Aquino’s return in 1983 was a turning point in Philippine history. After years of exile in the United States, he attempted to return home to lead the opposition against the dictatorship of Marcos Sr.

Instead, he was assassinated on the airport tarmac, a move that outraged the public and set off a series of protests that culminated in the ouster of Marcos three years later. His death became a rallying point, uniting the opposition and exposing the Marcos regime’s vulnerabilities.

While Duterte’s arrest upon his return did not involve an assassination, many believe it could still spark a similar political upheaval. Duterte, like Marcos Sr., is a highly polarizing figure — both revered and reviled for his iron-fisted rule, particularly his controversial war on drugs.

While he still commands a strong following, particularly in Mindanao and among nationalist conservatives, his legal troubles — whether stemming from the International Criminal Court (ICC) or domestic cases — could serve as a litmus test for the Marcos Jr. administration’s political will.

Will Marcos Jr. stand firm in letting the justice system take its course, or will he hesitate, fearing a backlash from Duterte’s loyalists?

History shows that sudden acts of political persecution — especially against popular leaders — often backfire. Marcos Sr. underestimated the public reaction to Aquino’s assassination, thinking it would silence dissent. Instead, it ignited a widespread movement that eventually led to his downfall. Similarly, arresting Duterte could have unintended consequences.

First, it could consolidate the opposition forces. Duterte’s supporters — many of whom now see him as a victim of political persecution — might rally against Marcos Jr. The very people who supported Marcos Jr. in 2022 could turn against him, accusing his government of betraying the former president who had allowed the burial of Marcos Sr. at the Libingan ng mga Bayani during his term.

The arrest could also unify Duterte’s camp with other opposition groups, forming an anti-Marcos alliance, much like how different factions united against Marcos Sr. in the 1980s.

Second, it could destabilize the political landscape. Duterte’s supporters, especially those in the police and military, could stage protests or even more drastic actions. If the government miscalculates the public response, it could face a legitimacy crisis, especially if massive protests erupt in Mindanao, where Duterte’s influence remains strong.

While there are similarities between 1983 and today, the political landscape has changed significantly. In 1983, the country was under a dictatorship with strict media control, yet the outrage over Aquino’s assassination managed to break through.

Today, the Philippines operates under a democratic system, but social media manipulation and disinformation complicate political mobilization. Unlike Aquino, Duterte is not a martyr but a former president with both staunch supporters and fierce critics.

Nevertheless, if Marcos Jr. allowed Duterte’s arrest, he must be prepared for the potential fallout. Political history has shown that when powerful figures are perceived as being unfairly targeted, it often leads to unintended consequences.

Whether this leads to another People Power or merely a heightened political tension remains to be seen. But one thing is certain — Filipino history has a way of repeating itself, often with unexpected results.