Tulfo leads senate race, admin bets dominate in latest survey

With just four months to go before the May 2025 elections, half of Filipino registered voters already have a complete slate of senatorial candidates, according to the latest Pulse Asia Research Pre-Electoral Survey. The survey, conducted from 18-25 January 2025, through face-to-face interviews with 2,400 adults nationwide, provides a snapshot of voter preferences amid ongoing political and economic developments.

ACT-CIS Party-List Representative Erwin Tulfo emerged as the frontrunner in the senatorial race, garnering 62.8% of voter support, securing him a solo 1st-place ranking. Close behind him is Senator Christopher "Bong" Go (50.4%) and former senate president Vicente Sotto III (50.2%), ranking 2nd and 3rd respectively. Notably, Ben Tulfo, running as an independent, placed within the 3rd-8th range with 46.2% voter preference.

Ten of the 14 candidates with a strong statistical chance of winning belong to the administration’s "Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas," reflecting significant government backing. Other prominent names in the senatorial race include Senators Pia Cayetano (46.1%), Ramon "Bong" Revilla Jr. (46.0%), Imee Marcos (43.4%), and former senator Panfilo Lacson (42.4%). Television host Willie Revillame (41.9%) and Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa (41.2%) are also among the probable winners.

Regional and class preferences

Support for a full senatorial slate is strongest in Mindanao (72%) and the Visayas (64%), while it is significantly lower in Luzon (33%). Class E voters are more decisive, with 52% completing their 12-person ballot, compared to 42% among Class D voters.

Party-list race: ACT-CIS maintains strong lead

In the party-list elections, ACT-CIS leads with 7.96% of voter preference, securing three congressional seats if the elections were held today. Other top-performing groups include 4Ps (7.42%), Tingog (6.29%), Uswag Ilonggo (4.83%), and Senior Citizens (4.44%).

A total of 155 groups are competing for congressional representation through the party-list system, with only five securing the maximum three seats. Other notable groups projected to gain at least two seats include Ako Bicol, PPP, Malasakit@Bayanihan, and Duterte Youth.

The survey results come at a time of heightened political activity. The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) has faced delays in printing ballots due to temporary restraining orders (TROs) issued by the Supreme Court but remains confident it will meet the 14 April deadline for 73 million official ballots.

Several political controversies have also dominated the pre-election landscape. An impeachment complaint by the house against Vice President Sara Duterte was passed to the senate, while former president Rodrigo Duterte faces potential criminal charges over his administration’s war on drugs. Additionally, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 81, removing the Vice President and former presidents from the National Security Council.

Economic concerns and foreign policy Issues

Beyond politics, economic concerns weigh on voters’ minds. Inflation for December 2024 was recorded at 2.9%, higher than the 2.5% in November, driven by rising fuel and utility costs. Oil prices surged in January, with gasoline increasing by ₱1.60 per liter and diesel by ₱2.60 per liter.

On the foreign policy front, tensions in the West Philippine Sea remain high, with continued presence of Chinese Coast Guard vessels near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office has led to significant policy shifts, including the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement.