Q4 GDP growth likely at 5.8% — BPI

The Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) believes the economy in the fourth quarter of last year grew faster by 5.8 percent, partly due to increased government spending.

“Government expenditures provided a significant boost, with disbursements surging by 20 percent ahead of the elections this year,” BPI chief economist Emilio Neri Jr. said Friday.

The actual fourth-quarter economic growth in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority on 30 January.

The country’s economy in the third quarter grew by 5.2 percent, lower than economists’ forecast of 5.7 to 6 percent.

The Department of Budget and Management reported government spending on infrastructure projects from January to October alone jumped by 13.2 percent to P1.09 trillion compared to P964.9 billion in the same period in 2023.

Officials expect the full-year infrastructure expense to reach P1.54 trillion or 5.8 percent of GDP.

Aside from government spending, Neri said the household consumption likely grew as lower rice prices provided them extra cash for discretionary spending.

National statistics show household consumption remained stable in the third quarter at 5.1 percent.

Neri said growth in remittances from overseas Filipino workers recorded at 3.5 percent in November likely encouraged their families back home to purchase more goods or services.

The economist added higher foreign direct investments through stocks and bonds supported economic growth.