Brace for La Niña — PAGASA

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is closely monitoring the possibility of formally declaring La Niña conditions this January.

In a statement by PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis on Saturday, she stated that La Niña-like conditions have been felt since September of 2024, bringing typhoons and heavy rains most felt in November. 

“La Niña-like” conditions refer to conditions that show effects of a full-blown La Niña but fall short into meeting the criteria. 

“As early as September, we raised the La Niña alert and issued a notice on La Niña-like conditions,” Solis said. “Although we haven’t met the threshold for a full La Niña, the impact of it are evident.” 

PAGASA has observed a 72-percent probability of La Niña from this month until March, a slight decrease from November’s 75-percent probability. 

Despite declining probability, the agency emphasized that the wet weather is likely to persist, whether La Niña conditions are officially declared or not.

“This means there’s still a heightened risk of heavy rainfall, which could lead to floods and landslides.”

The agency plans to complete its data assessment this month to determine whether to issue an official La Niña advisory. However, PAGASA warned that even without an official declaration, the prolonged wet weather have been evident since September and are expected to persist through March.