“Some socio-economic and political risk analysts see the Philippines entering, at this juncture, a period of grave uncertainty over the trajectory of political affairs, particularly with the President and Vice President clashing in a spectacularly ugly public form.
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In his Christmas Day message to the nation, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. urged Filipinos to reflect on what really matters: “living a life of meaning and purpose” as they “come home to reconnect with loved ones and relish the blessings of the past year.”
In a separate message, Vice President Sara Duterte, now estranged from the President and their Uniteam Alliance, conveyed her own greetings, underscoring what, to her, the birth of Jesus represents: “mapagpatawad, bukas-palad, mapagmahal sa ating kapwa (forgiving, generous, compassionate).”
On 5 December, she addressed locals in Lugawe, Ifugao and touched on the same values. “Christmas is a season for forgiveness, love, and generosity. That’s the message and spirit of Christmas. But for me, I will not be forgiving anyone,” said the Vice President, beleaguered by probes by the House of Representatives on her alleged misuse of public funds, including intelligence funds intended for her Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education which she headed until her sudden resignation in June 2024. She, of course, believes that the President is the one behind the House probe.
Barely two weeks earlier, she had shocked the nation when she appeared online, cussing the President, First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, saying she had contracted an assassin to liquidate all three if she were killed.
This seemingly irreparable relationship between the two highest officials of the land has become so unnerving that it has even elicited a rare statement of concern from Manila archbishop, Cardinal Jose Advincula, who is known to be reticent about political issues.
Advincula has “exhorted all to pray for the country’s political leaders … in these most trying times so that sobriety may prevail in our land and political issues and personal interests may not divide the nation.”
Someone close to the prelate said it’s “rare” for Advincula to comment on political matters so he must have really been troubled by “the seriousness” of the enmity between the two leaders.
That same seriousness has economists warning that if left unresolved, the conflict between said leaders could retard the economy and gravely impair the country’s reputation as a stable haven for investments.
Former Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas deputy governor and US-based Global Source Partner Philippine analyst Diwa C. Guinigundo also say the Vice President’s agitation over the congressional probe on her alleged misuse of public funds and threats to have the President, his wife and the House Speaker killed “could have consequential ramifications, giving the world an impression that we are a weak soft state and that doesn’t exactly inspire investment.”
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings Inc. also views the Marcos-Duterte tension, along with the policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration as posing risks to the country.
Some socio-economic and political risk analysts see the Philippines entering, at this juncture, a period of grave uncertainty over the trajectory of political affairs, particularly with the President and Vice President clashing in a spectacularly ugly public form.
“Those observing the Philippines over the years know that that’s rarely an environment in which vital economic upgrades happen,” said one such analyst, Forbes senior contributor William Pesek.
In his view, it is incumbent upon governments in the region to increase competitiveness, make major investments in education and improve business environments to attract foreign investments. “It’s not clear how much bandwidth the Marcos-Duterte team now has to implement such changes,” says Pesek.
He is upbeat about the 5 percent growth of the Philippine economy but points out that with President-elect Trump indicating his intent to wage “the most ferocious trade war Asia has ever seen, new headwinds are to come the Philippines’ way. The expected hit to China’s economic growth has leaders, including the Philippines, dreading 2025.”
Even in the best of times, pushing forward the Philippines’ game is fraught with challenges. How much more, when the
With the country’s two highest leaders at odds, efforts to effect positive change in the economy could be much more difficult.
At this point, the President has no choice but to seek all possible measures to resolve the political discord rocking his government. He must prevent a protracted public spectacle of how unstable Philippine politics is. He is the chief of state and he must show one and all who is in command.
Any indication that he’s loosening his hold on the reins of government would only see his foes swooping down like power-driven vultures to pluck him from the space he occupies and cast him off to kingdom come.
