December SWS survey: Shifts in 2025 Senate race, Erwin Tulfo still leads

The latest Social Weather Surveys (SWS), conducted in December and sponsored by Stratbase Consultancy, revealed significant shifts in voter preferences for the 2025 senatorial elections compared to the September survey, which was prior to the filing of Certificate of Candidacy (COC) for senators held last 1-8 October. 

Here’s a breakdown of the changes in public preferences for potential senatorial candidates:

In September, Erwin Tulfo dominated with 54 percent, but his support dropped to 45 percent in December, though he still led both surveys. Bong Revilla showed significant growth, rising from 24 percent to 33 percent, while Pia Cayetano maintained a strong standing at 31-32 percent. Notable newcomers in December included Ben "Bitag" Tulfo (30 percent) and TV host Willie Revillame (26 percent). 

Meanwhile, consistent performers such as Abby Binay, Lito Lapid, and Camille Villar remained in the 20-25 percent range across both surveys. A key observation was the absence of Rodrigo Duterte in December, despite his 25 percent showing in September. 

The December 12-18 survey, which involved 2,097 registered voters aged 18 and above nationwide, revealed the top senatorial preferences among respondents. Ranked first was ACT-CIS Party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo with 45 percent, followed by Senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. in second place with 33 percent. Tied for third and fourth place were Senator Bong Go and Senator Pia Cayetano with 32 percent, while former senate president Vicente Sotto III ranked fifth with 31 percent, and Ben "Bitag" Tulfo placed sixth with 30 percent.

Former senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson came in seventh with 27 percent, with former senator Manny "Pacman" Pacquiao and Willie Revillame tied for eighth and ninth spot one percent lower at 26 percent. At tenth was Makati City Mayor Abby Binay with 25 percent, followed by Senator Manuel “Lito” Lapid with 23 percent in eleventh place.

Completing the rankings were Las Piñas City Rep. Camille Villar, Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa, and Senator Imee Marcos, all tied at 12-14 place with 21 percent, with Kiko Pangilinan in fifteenth at 20 percent. 

In the September Social Weather Survey, a total of 1,500 adult respondents nationwide were asked to choose from a list of 12 names of potential senatorial candidates. Leading the survey was Erwin Tulfo with 54 percent, followed by Tito Sotto at 34 percent.

Pia Cayetano secured third place with 31 percent, while Imee Marcos and former president Rodrigo Duterte both tied in fourth with 25 percent. Panfilo Lacson and Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. were tied in sixth place at 24 percent, followed by Camille Villar with 21 percent.

Abigail Binay and Manuel “Lito” Lapid each garnered 20 percent, while Manny Pacquiao, Bong Go, and Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa all received 18 percent.

Significant drops in rankings were also notable in the list. Sotto dropped to 5th place with 31 percent, a significant decrease from 34 percent in the September survey, where he had ranked second. Similarly, Bong Go fell to a tie for third to fourth place with 32 percent, down from 18 percent in September, where he was ranked 11th. Both saw substantial decreases in their ranking.

Additionally, Senator Imee Marcos, Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa, and Kiko Pangilinan saw no significant improvement in their rankings, each receiving 21 percent and placing in the bottom tier of both surveys.

Looking ahead, the Philippines will hold its 2025 midterm elections, during which voters will elect 12 new senators and 63 party-list representatives on 12 May, 2025. 

Additionally, over 18,000 local government positions will be contested, including those for governors, mayors, and councilors, across the country's provinces, cities, and municipalities.