Forecasting hits, misses

On beaches on the outskirts of Metro Manila, thousands of visitors were advised — no, make that bundled — out of the resorts they had booked for a weekend staycation. Although the weather bureau had announced Super typhoon Pepito’s arrival days in advance, some guests took their chances and proceeded with their scheduled vacations.

The resort owners could not be faulted for not resetting the bookings, as doing so would have resulted in lost profits and would have likely drawn the ire of their visitors, who were eager to enjoy their weekend getaway, bad weather or not.

Meanwhile, in the coastal areas of the capital region, brave souls who were swimming and frolicking on the shore were rounded up by police, as well as Coast Guard and local government personnel.

Those living in makeshift houses on waterways — rivers and esteros, under bridges and spillways connected to the sea — were promised hot meals and other enticements to temporarily relocate to a tent city within Baseco Compound in Port Area, Manila.

The staycationers and those in danger of being swept away by feared storm surges felt the coercive power of the state for their safety, as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that no one should trifle with the wrath of “Pepito.”

However, as Metro Manila was placed under Storm Signals 1 and 2, the effects of “Pepito” were hardly felt in the capital region. Instead, the storm rampaged late Saturday and early Sunday through the Bicol Region, which had already borne the fury of typhoon “Kristine” just days back.

There’s always much to be thankful for when a feared catastrophe does not materialize. But for many in Metro Manila, where only an overcast sky and a little rain prevailed for most of the weekend, PAGASA’s forecast proved so far off that it was mocked and ridiculed.

One executive of a local government unit, however, voiced his frustration on social media, earning both praise for calling out PAGASA to improve its forecasting capabilities, and criticism for what some perceived as a cavalier attitude toward the safety of schoolchildren.

Not to be outdone, a lawmaker pressed the Department of Education to adjust the school calendar to align with climate-mitigation efforts, suggesting that students should largely be at home for their long vacation during the typhoon season.

As things stand, the government’s swift and decisive action in relocating vulnerable residents ahead of super typhoon “Pepito” deserves commendation. By evacuating over 1.2 million people from high-risk areas, the authorities took a crucial step to save lives. This proactive approach, if replicated across future disasters, could significantly reduce the human toll of typhoons. However, the government’s handling of the event was not without its flaws.

While the evacuation efforts were commendable, the actual impact of “Pepito” on Metro Manila — where forecasts predicted severe conditions — highlighted significant gaps in the accuracy of weather predictions. PAGASA must invest in enhancing its forecasting capabilities to ensure more reliable warnings and avoid unnecessary panic or complacency.

Global best practices in weather forecasting, such as the use of advanced satellite technology, real-time data, and improved computational models in countries like Japan and the United States, should be considered as benchmarks for PAGASA’s future development.

Additionally, nations like the Netherlands have demonstrated the effectiveness of long-term mitigation strategies, including coastal defenses and resilient infrastructure, which could serve as a model for the Philippines.

While the government’s actions during “Pepito”were largely commendable, the mixed results of its response to both “Pepito” and recent typhoons underscore the need for greater consistency in preparedness, forecasting, and disaster management to safeguard the nation’s future.