Tropical storm “Ofel,” the third storm to hit the country this month, is forecast to move toward Northern Luzon, where residents are still recovering from typhoons “Marce” and “Nika.”

According to the latest Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecast, “Ofel” is expected to intensify into a typhoon before making landfall in the northern portion of Cagayan. If the track holds, the storm is predicted to approach Luzon’s landmass on Thursday, 14 November.

PAGASA has cautioned provinces within the storm’s cone of uncertainty to remain on high alert, as the track could shift northward or southward. Weather agencies such as the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also anticipate landfall or a close approach in northeastern Cagayan.

In the latest update, “Ofel” has intensified into a severe tropical storm. It was last spotted 780 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, carrying winds of 95 kilometers per hour and gusts up to 115 kph. It is moving west-northwest at 30 kph.

Impact on Cagayan

Cagayan province is still reeling from the effects of typhoon “Marce,” which made landfall in Santa Ana town on 7 November with winds reaching up to 175 kph, just shy of super typhoon status.

In Sanchez-Mira, where “Marce” made its second landfall, the local government declared a state of calamity due to widespread power outages, damaged infrastructure and crop loss.

Following typhoon “Nika,” large areas of Iguig, Amulung and Alcala remained under water due to the rising levels of the Cagayan River.

As of 3:30 p.m. on 12 November, the water level at Buntun Bridge in Tuguegarao City had reached a critical 11 meters, according to the Tuguegarao City Command Center.

In preparation for “Ofel,” Magat Dam has opened two spillway gates, with authorities warning that the amount of water released may increase depending on the rainfall at the Magat Watershed.

Airports operational

The Baguio, Lingayen and Vigan airports have resumed normal operations, although some commercial flights have been suspended due to fog and light to moderate winds. Laoag International Airport has also returned to normal operations with no flight disruptions reported.

Area Center 1 Manager Ronald Estabillo confirmed that no duty workers were injured and no airport equipment was damaged. However, visual flight rules at Vigan and Baguio airports remained suspended.

Meanwhile, Basco, Tuguegarao and Cauayan airports have resumed full operations, with no infrastructure damage and all airport staff present. While general aviation is on standby, non-scheduled flights to coastal areas have been suspended, despite the resumption of commercial flights.

Due to high winds, Basco airport reported the cancellation of several flights. Area Center 2 Manager Sulyn Sagorsor said that four flights from Manila and Clark to Basco were canceled, affecting 234 passengers.

Weathermen face fatigue

Meanwhile, weather forecasters at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration also face their own challenges, particularly when it comes to managing public expectations during typhoon season.

Ana Liza Solis, head of Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction unit, said at the Quezon City Journalists’ Forum that while “typhoon fatigue” is a reality for some, the agency has implemented support systems to help ease the burden on forecasters.

“An internal memo has been issued to augment the work of meteorologists and weather specialists. Our technical staff, along with other specialists, will provide assistance to give forecasters a break from the continuous task of issuing warnings and updates,” Solis said.

For the public, Solis emphasized the importance of always being prepared and listening to Pagasa’s weather forecasts to stay informed about potential risks from typhoons and other weather disturbances. This is particularly crucial now as the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced, including prolonged rainfall and extreme weather events.

“The climate is constantly changing. While the number of typhoons may be decreasing, their intensity is increasing,” Solis said, pointing to the possibility of another typhoon like “Ondoy.”

“It could happen again in our lifetime — hopefully not soon — but it’s better to be prepared and to calibrate our actions based on Pagasa’s warnings.”