Playing the Trump card

The victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the United States in the 2024 presidential elections may carry significant implications for the Philippines.

Given the complex, often tumultuous relationship between Trump and Asian countries during his previous administration, Filipinos may find themselves with a mixed bag of diplomatic shifts, potential economic changes, and renewed concerns over US foreign policy in the region.

Historically, US-Philippine relations have been solid. Trump’s past presidency saw considerable engagement with the Duterte administration, largely characterized by mutual respect despite contentious topics such as human rights and Duterte’s war on drugs.

Trump was notable for his non-interventionist approach to Duterte’s policies, opting not to criticize the Philippines’ internal affairs. This set him apart from many Western leaders and contributed to what appeared to be a warm rapport.

With Trump back in office, the Philippines may anticipate a similar hands-off stance from the US, likely with less scrutiny on issues that typically invite criticism from Western administrations, such as human rights and democratic backsliding.

However, a more transactional and interest-driven relationship may emerge. Trump has long emphasized “America First,” advocating for foreign policies that tangibly benefit American interests. This approach could shape US-Philippine relations, especially in areas like military cooperation, trade and immigration.

For example, Trump may push for increased military access in the Philippines, especially with the growing US focus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. If the Philippines aligns closely with Trump’s anti-China stance, it might enjoy expanded support and aid in return, as the US shores up its strategic foothold in Southeast Asia.

Trump’s economic policies previously focused on renegotiating trade deals and repatriating jobs to the United States, often to the detriment of foreign markets. For the Philippines, which relies heavily on the outsourcing industry with the US as a major client, this could mean renewed anxiety.

Trump’s “America First” policy had led to a push for American companies to bring jobs back home, which may not bode well for the Philippines’ business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, one of its economic lifelines.

On the flip side, Trump’s pro-business stance could lead to increased American investments in the Philippines if he decides to prioritize Southeast Asian markets as part of his China counterbalance strategy.

When it comes to immigration, however, Trump’s policies have often been seen as less favorable to Asian communities. His previous administration imposed restrictions and significantly tightened immigration policies, with some measures impacting Filipino migrants, such as the temporary suspension of work visas.

While he may ease certain travel restrictions, particularly for skilled workers, a Trump administration is unlikely to loosen immigration rules significantly, and in some cases might intensify them to control labor markets in the US.

The Philippines sits at a delicate crossroads, geographically positioned near the South China Sea — a region at the center of US-China tensions. Under a Trump administration, the US would likely continue its assertive stance against China, with strong rhetoric and potential military posturing in the contested waters.

While this could mean increased security support for the Philippines, it also risks exacerbating regional tensions. Manila would have to tread very carefully, balancing its longstanding alliance with the US while managing its relationship with China, a significant economic partner.

The previous Trump administration underscored its opposition to China’s expansive territorial claims, a position that aligned with the Philippines’ own interests in the South China Sea.

Renewed support from the US might empower the Philippines to assert its territorial claims, though this could strain diplomatic relations with Beijing.

The second Trump presidency might expect more overt Philippine support in return, possibly pressuring Manila into a deeper alliance, which could have economic and political ramifications.

Trump’s image among Filipino-Americans is divided. While some appreciate his tough stance on China, others are wary of his past policies that were perceived as racially insensitive. Filipinos in the US may face increased scrutiny in an environment that has seen growing polarization around race and immigration issues.

However, Trump has also shown a willingness to engage the Filipino-American community, recognizing its sizable presence in key states. This could lead to attempts to win over Filipino-American support, though whether this would translate to policy shifts remains to be seen.