Sunni-Shia divide: Catalyst for escalation

Sunni-Shia divide: Catalyst for escalation | Daily Tribune

Everyone is observing and analyzing the Israel-Iran war, yet no one is talking of the Muslim Sunni-Shia divide or splinter as an important critical catalyst for either escalation or de-escalation.

To understand how the ongoing Israeli-Iran war is evolving, one must understand the Sunni-Shia splinter. The Sunnis are the rich oil nations caught in the middle of the war, who are scared that the war is disrupting their oil empires. The Shiites are led by Persian Iran, who are defying Israel in their existential war. In truth, the Israel-Iran war is sadly and truly existential, the catalyst for eventual nuclear war.

Once nuclear war breaks out, it will be a total, sudden, global and irreversible war beyond imagination. Right now, except for Netanyahu and Zelensky, who may want to induce a nuclear war if they are cornered, everyone else is scared of a nuclear war — the Pentagon, Wall Street, the White House, all major US players, NATO, Putin, Xi, everybody.

So let us look more closely at history. What is this Sunni-Shia splinter or divide? And how is it affecting the evolution of the Israel-Iran conflict? This Sunni-Shia map (https://eastwindjournals.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/589-jpeg-sunni-shia-map-pew.jpg?w=1000) was published by the Pew Research Center for the reading public. However, it does not have a date, but it should be circa 2015-2020. It is a map that measures the percentage of the Shia population in the Middle East. There have been constant war- and poverty-related population and refugee movements that erode the accuracy of the map, but it is a good map to start with.

To understand Shia concentrations, let us focus on the map that measures Shia percent of population, namely, Iran (90-95 percent), Saudi Arabia (10-15 percent), Syria (15-20 percent), Lebanon (45-55 percent), Turkey (10-15 percent), Yemen 35-40 percent, Kuwait 20-25 percent, Bahrain 65-75 percent, Qatar 10 percent. Iraq is an exception (65-70 percent Shia) but ruled by the minority Sunnis.

In other words, Iran and Lebanon have many Shia citizens, less than half of Yemen, and a quarter of Kuwait. The Shia comprise the bulk of those opposing Israel, namely, Iran, the Hezbollah of Lebanon and the Houthis of Yemen. The Sunnis comprise the rich oil nations who see war as a threat to their oil fields. There is thus a conflict of interest between Sunnis protecting their oil and Shiites who are in an existential war with Israel. Saudi Arabia struck a precarious alliance with Israel to stop it from launching a war versus Iran.

Essentially, the predominant Sunni nations are Saudi Arabia (85 percent), Kuwait (75-80 percent), Qatar (90 percent), Syria (80-85 percent), Oman (90-95 percent), United Arab Emirates (90 percent) and Yemen (60-65 percent). Iraq is an exception, as mentioned, being predominantly Shia (65-70 percent) but the ruling minority is Sunni. Take note that these are not very accurate estimates, because they are simply the complements of the Shia percentage of the population. For example, Syria being 15-20 percent Shia does not mean the rest is 80-85 percent Sunni, as there are many other ethnic Arabs there. It is just a rule of thumb for broad estimates.

Hezbollah is Shia and a close ally of Iran. Surprisingly, Hamas is Sunni, yet there is a unique alliance between Hezbollah and Hamas. Political observers believe that this is the beginning of a true alliance between Sunni and Shia, which has been elusive historically for many millennia. For the first time, the war with Israel could potentially bring Sunni and Shia together because of Israel’s deadly genocide in Gaza and Beirut, and a potential genocide in Rafah, where Israel is set to launch an invasion, and where more than a million Palestinian refugees are sitting ducks.

Historically, the Sunni-Shia splinter happened immediately after the death of the Prophet Mohammed. The Shia part were the loyal relatives. The Sunni part were the non-relative leaders. They were, from the start, to this day, essentially irreconcilable, like oil and water. There were a few minor alliances, but these were considered insignificant. Throughout medieval history, the rich and powerful Sunnis were the dominant Islamic force that oppressed the poor and weaker Shiites. Both have launched massacres of each other throughout the centuries.