Climate change could cause 18% less growth for Phl — ADB

The Philippines could lose 18.1 percent of its gross domestic output (GDP) by 2070 due to climate change which threatens to put the country’s sea level among the highest in Asia, the latest climate report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.

Still, that projected Philippine GDP loss is much less gloomy than Vietnam’s 30 percent, Indonesia’s 27 percent, and India’s 25 percent, according to ADB Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024.

As the regional temperature rises due to countries’ slow climate action, ADB forecasts a rising sea level in the Philippines to destroy livelihoods in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, resulting in a 4.7 percent GDP loss by 2070.

Lower yields in wheat

ADB said developing countries in the region could see lower yields in wheat by 45 percent and corn by 20 percent during the period if climate change worsens.

Sea-level rise will affect Pakistan the heaviest, with a possible 12 percent GDP loss.

“Losses related to sea-level rise and storm surges accelerate over time; storm surges exacerbate the sea-level effect. Around 300 million people in the region could be threatened by coastal inundation,” ADB said.

To address climate change, ADB said countries must prevent uncontrolled urbanization, implement carbon taxes, and establish policies toward zero net carbon emissions.

Carbon emissions to more than double

In 2021, ADB said developing countries in Asia doubled their share in global transport emissions to 28 percent. Combined with unsustainable urbanization, ADB said their carbon emissions are seen to more than double to 7 gigatonnes in the next decades.

“To mitigate increases in transport emissions, economies should promote alternatives such as two and three-wheeled emission-free vehicles over passenger cars, while also developing integrated mass transit systems,” ADB said.

Apart from these, ADB said the Philippines should deploy carbon taxes strategically on industries for highly emitting carbon emissions to see at least 2.4 percent growth in economic output over the long term.

“When a particular subregion imposes carbon pricing, it suffers reductions in output. However, carbon taxes can also generate additional revenue for governments, which can then be used to support sustainable economic growth and green investments,” ADB said.