The Big One

“Are we ready for the Big One?” Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) Secretary Toni Yulo-Loyzaga was asked that question by reporters at the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (APMCDRR) media reception at the Philippine International Convention Center on Monday, 14 October 2024.

This is the first time that the APMCDRR, co-hosted by the DENR and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), is being held in the Philippines.

That question asked the DENR secretary was in reference to the possibility of an even more devastating earthquake than the magnitude 7.8 temblor that had struck Northern Luzon 34 years ago, on 16 July 1990, one so powerful that seismic waves were felt in Metro Manila, over 100 kilometers from the epicenter, Rizal, Nueva Ecija.

The July 1990 earthquake was stronger than the 7.2 Bohol quake in 2013 which staggered Central Visayas, killing over 200 people and injuring close to a thousand more.

And who could forget the horrific August 1968 7.3-magnitude earthquake with its epicenter in Casiguran, Aurora province but which had caused the collapse of the six-story Ruby Tower in Sta. Cruz, Manila 200 kilometers away, killing 500 or half the total number of people living in the building?

The energy released by the 7.2-magnitude 2013 Bohol earthquake was equal to slightly over 30 bombs that decimated Hiroshima, so one can just imagine how much more powerful that 7.8-magnitude temblor was that struck Northern Luzon in 1990.

That earthquake was generated by the active 1,200 km.-long Philippine Fault transecting northwestern Luzon and southwestern Mindanao and there are fears that the Fault may cause an even deadlier larger magnitude earthquake in the future. It that does happen, are we ready for it?

“Tagal ko na sinasabi yan,” said the DENR chief in reply to the query, stressing that “we need to review our plans for the Big One; we have to update our exposure and vulnerability data and we need to anticipate the economic cost of what it would take to recover.”

Said Yulo-Loyzaga, “In Japan, for example, they have a scenario where the Nankai Trough will move, and it will be at such magnitude that the economic cost will be extremely severe.”

She is referring to a submarine trough south of the Nankaido region of Japan’s island of Honshu which extends approximately 900 kms. offshore.

In August, 2024, Japan issued its first-ever advisory on higher-than-usual risks of a megaquake after a 7.1-magnitude quake struck at the edge of the Nankai Trough on 8 August.

The Japanese government had earlier predicted a 70-80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake along the Trough within the next 30 years, with tsunami waves of up to 30 meters reaching Japan’s Pacific coasts, landslides and fire killing as much as 300,000 people, destroying millions of buildings, forcing the evacuation of some 10 million people and causing damage worth up to $1.50 trillion, or over a third of Japan’s annual GDP.

Japan has a pre-disaster recovery plan for the reconstruction of Tokyo and other major centers should a megaquake occur. “This is something we hope to do as well; we are in discussion with the Office of Civil Defense and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) to see how we can conduct a thorough review of our own plans,” she said.

The subject will certainly be given attention during the APMCDRR which will run through Friday, 18 October.

This is the first time that the Philippines is hosting the biennial APMCDRR, convened by the UNDRR since the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Asia-Pacific by UN member states as successor to the Hyogo Framework for Action, the most encompassing international accord to date on disaster risk reduction

The DENR secretary said the country’s hosting of the APMCDRR indicates recognition by the UN of the significant progress made by the Philippines in terms of disaster resilience since 2015.

Said Yulo-Loyzaga, “The APMCDRR provides local government units with a platform and network to accelerate their progress in reducing disaster risks through knowledge-sharing and good practices, new tools and ways to access innovative financing.”

At a Malacañang reception for APMCDRR delegates on Monday, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. raised his glass to the “pursuit of mitigating disaster risks and the opportunity to explore avenues of collaboration in leveraging science and technology to alleviate the impact of climate change” and, hopefully, the country’s survival, when and if the really Big One strikes.