The planned comeback of former President Rodrigo Duterte as Davao City mayor is not just an ordinary bid but more of a litmus test for the 2028 presidential elections, a political expert said Thursday.

Political analyst Froilan Calilung, a professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said that the Duterte family, which has been ruling Davao for over three decades, is merely trying to tighten its grip on the city by positioning its patriarch for the top local post.

Duterte launched his intention to reclaim his past position on Monday, the last two days of the deadline for filing the Certificate of Candidacy. His son, incumbent Mayor Sebastian Duterte, will be his running mate.

The senior Duterte will be up against his ex-Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles in the mayoral race.

Calilung pointed out that a loss in their bailiwick could affect the Dutertes’ potential ambition for the 2028 national election.

“If the Nograles will actually be able to snatch Davao away from the Dutertes, then it will give the idea of the weakening control of the Dutertes in their own bailiwick,” Calilung said in an interview.

“This may translate into a seemingly weaker perception of the electorate or the voting public on a national level and this is something that the Dutertes would not want to actually have,” he added.

Davao is among the most vote-rich cities in the country, along with Quezon City and Manila.

The former president’s decision to run as mayor is being seen as a desperate effort to save his family’s faltering political dynasty following a strained alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which saw former allies turned into his staunchest critics.

The Dutertes had previously criticized the Marcos administration for lack of a comprehensive flood control master plan to quell the massive flooding in their bailiwick.

Marcos’ allies, however, jumped in his defense, saying the Dutertes, who ruled Davao City for over three decades, were the ones to blame.

The recent issue of the alleged misuse of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, on her office’s multi-million confidential funds is among the factors that contributing to their family’s waning influence.

Sara, who has been at odds with the leadership of the House of Representatives led by Marcos’ cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez, is perceived as the front-runner in the 2028 national polls.

The VP, currently at the center of a congressional probe over allegations of fund mismanagement, previously indicated she will not close her doors to the possibility of running in the next presidential elections.

She vowed to announce her political ambitions in the “fourth quarter of 2026.”

Lagging behind

Nograles, a three-term congressman, said he is puzzled why Davao, a progressive city, lags behind its neighbors when it had “the means, the capacity, and the money” to digitalize and provide more benefits for senior citizens.

According to the mayoral hopeful, these initiatives have been implemented in other cities for years now.

“It’s not that Davao doesn’t have the money for it. It does. and I don’t understand why we cannot maximize all of these for the benefit of our people in Davao City,” Nograles said in an interview on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, he said his constituents in Davao could expect a new leadership that would finally fix the flooding problem that has plagued the city all these years.

Nograles will run as an independent candidate, while his younger sister, incumbent PBA Rep. Margaritta Nograles, will run against Duterte’s eldest son, Davao City Paolo Duterte, who will seek reelection.

Nograles’ decision to run for mayor revived the long and bitter Duterte-Nograles rivalry dating back to 1992, when Nograles’ father, the late Speaker Prospero Nograles, attempted to unseat Duterte in that election.

The first loss of the senior Nograles was later followed by a series of poll defeats against the Dutertes.

It was only in 2015 that their decade-old feud came to an end after the Nograles clan endorsed a fellow Davaoeño Duterte in the 2016 presidential polls, which the latter won.

As a result of the reconciliation, Duterte even appointed younger Nograles to various posts during his tenure.