New opposition leader?

Former President Rodrigo Duterte’s political stance has been the subject of growing curiosity, especially as discussions surface about his potential rise as a key opposition figure against incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

With both leaders once enjoying a stable political alliance, rumors of a brewing rivalry may seem counterintuitive. After all, Duterte has repeatedly stated that he has no quarrel with the Marcos administration, even after resigning from his post as chair of the anti-communist task force and distancing himself from national politics.

Yet, in the current political landscape, where the opposition remains fragmented and is struggling to find a unifying figure, the idea of Duterte filling that role has gained traction.

When Marcos Jr. won the presidency in 2022 with the endorsement of the Duterte family, it was seen as the formation of a new political powerhouse. Marcos’s rise to power, after all, benefited immensely from the popularity and influence of then President Duterte, whose daughter, Sara Duterte, became Marcos’s vice president.

However, cracks in the alliance began to show earlier than expected. The most notable rupture came when Vice President Sara Duterte resigned from her post as DepEd secretary last June and distanced herself from the Marcos administration.

Speculations about tension between the Dutertes and the Marcoses have been further fueled by conflicting positions on various policies and growing signs of political independence from both sides.

While Duterte Sr. has expressed no ill will towards Marcos Jr., several commentators have started pitting the two political giants against each other, framing Duterte as a potential leader of a broader opposition movement.

Though the idea might seem far-fetched given Duterte’s close ties to Marcos during the 2022 elections, it is not without merit. Duterte’s popularity remains strong, especially in his home region of Mindanao and among supporters who saw his tough-talking, populist style as a refreshing alternative to traditional politics.

Marcos, on the other hand, is often perceived as a more conservative and aristocratic figure, a far cry from Duterte’s “man of the people” persona.

The Philippine opposition has been in disarray since the 2022 elections, when traditional opposition figures like Vice President Leni Robredo failed to mobilize enough support to challenge the Marcos-Duterte tandem.

The Liberal Party, once the standard-bearer of opposition politics, is now a shadow of its former self, struggling to remain relevant in a political arena that is increasingly dominated by populist figures.

Other groups, such as the left-wing Makabayan bloc, have also been unable to rally significant national support, leaving the opposition fractured and ineffective.

In this context, Duterte’s potential role as an opposition figure starts to make more sense.

Despite his declarations of neutrality, Duterte has the political clout, grassroots support, and media attention necessary to rally disillusioned voters who are dissatisfied with the Marcos administration but find no common cause with the traditional opposition.

His pragmatic, populist approach to governance also resonates with a wide range of Filipinos who remain skeptical of both elitist politics and revolutionary leftist movements.

One of the main reasons the idea of Duterte leading the opposition remains speculative is his mixed signals on national issues. On several occasions, Duterte has voiced support for Marcos Jr. and has even defended him from criticism. Yet, in other instances, he has been critical of certain policies, especially when it comes to matters of national security and law enforcement.

Additionally, Duterte’s political style has always been unpredictable, making it difficult to gauge whether he genuinely harbors opposition toward Marcos or is merely maintaining a degree of independence as a former president. His statements often oscillate between loyalty and critique, leaving both his supporters and critics guessing about his true intentions.

While Duterte has not formally declared any intention to lead an opposition movement, several factors make this scenario plausible. His significant base of supporters, his ability to galvanize public opinion, and the disarray within the current opposition all create a political vacuum that Duterte could easily fill if he chooses to do so.

Ultimately, whether Duterte rises as the new face of the opposition will depend on several factors, including the performance of the Marcos administration, the trajectory of Sara Duterte’s political career, and whether traditional opposition groups can reorganize and present a viable alternative.

For now, Duterte remains a powerful political figure who, even without officially declaring himself as the opposition leader, has the potential to shake the foundations of the political landscape once more.