'Julian’ accelerates toward S. Taiwan; expected to re-enter PAR on Wednesday

Typhoon "Julian" (Krathon) is slowly accelerating as it moves toward southern Taiwan. According to the state weather bureau's forecast, it may re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday.

Based on Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitoring as of 5:00 p.m., Julian’s center was estimated at 275 kilometers west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, outside PAR. 

Its maximum sustained winds were recorded at 165  km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 205 km/h, and a central pressure of 945  hectoPascals (hPa).

"‘Julian" is moving northward at a 15 km/h pace.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 remains hoisted in Batanes, Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Calayan Is., Dalupiri Is., Fuga Is.), and  the northern and western portions of Ilocos Norte (Bangui, Burgos, Pagudpud).  

Strong winds are expected in these areas, with potential impacts of minimal to minor threats to life and property.

Track and intensity outlook

PAGASA noted a significant change in the track forecast of the typhoon.

“The typhoon is still forecast to turn northeastward towards the southwestern coast of Taiwan, where it is expected to make landfall tomorrow (3 October) morning after entering the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility,” the bureau said in its bulletin.

Despite the re-entry, the typhoon will have no direct effect over the country except for Batanes, which is relatively close to Taiwan, PAGASA added.

“After landfall, Julian is forecast to move slowly to almost stationary over the landmass of Taiwan, where it may become a remnant low by Saturday (5 October) while still within PAR but relatively far from any part of the country,” it added.

Due to  a combination of incoming northeasterly wind flow over the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait and lower ocean heat content in its vicinity (which is related to upwelling of cooler waters caused by its slow movement for nearly two days), PAGASA forecasts "Julian" to rapidly weaken.

“Further weakening is expected once Julian hits the landmass over Taiwan due to frictional effects. The tropical cyclone may become a remnant low on the weekend," it said.

Eight injured, one missing

Meanwhile, eight individuals  from Cagayan Valley were confirmed hurt due the typhoon, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Meanwhile, one person from the  Cordillera region is missing.

As of their latest situation report, a total of  43,093 families, or  149,293 persons, were affected by the weather disturbance, of which 646 families, or 2,176 persons, are  sheltered in 58 evacuation centers. The majority of the affected populations were registered from the Ilocos region, with over 86,000 persons distressed.

As of writing, seven ports are  non operational—six from Calabarzon and one from Ilocos Region, while  at least 154 passengers and 15 rolling cargoes, nine vessels, and three motorboats are stranded.

"Julian" has also damaged 88 houses in the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Region.

A total of 23 cities and municipalities were declared under the state of calamity.

The government has extended over P11 million worth of assistance to affected families, said NDRMMC.