The United States and Iraq have reached a significant agreement that will mark the end of the American-led mission to combat the Islamic State (ISIS) group. Under the deal, U.S. troops will gradually shift from several longstanding bases in Iraq, culminating in a full transition by 2026. This move represents a new chapter in the two-decade military involvement that began with the 2003 U.S. invasion.

According to reports, the agreement outlines a two-phase process. In the first phase, running through September 2025, the U.S. and coalition forces will complete their mission against ISIS and vacate key bases, including Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and Baghdad International Airport. These forces will relocate to the Hareer base in Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. 

In the second phase, U.S. troops will continue limited operations from Iraqi soil until 2026 to support ongoing counter-ISIS efforts in neighboring Syria. Beyond that, American military presence will likely evolve into a bilateral security arrangement, though details remain uncertain.

In her article for the Associated Press, Tara Copp highlighted the importance of the deal, noting that it marks the third formal transition of U.S. military involvement in Iraq in the past two decades. Copp also discussed the long-standing calls from Iraqi officials to reduce the American footprint in the region.

A Historic Shift

This agreement is a significant development for Iraq, where the presence of U.S. troops has been a point of contention, especially given growing Iranian influence. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani emphasized that the country's security forces are now capable of handling the remnants of ISIS, stating, "We have taken an important step in resolving the issue of the international coalition to fight ISIS."

However, the deal has not been without its challenges. Some factions, like the Iran-backed militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq, have called for the complete expulsion of U.S. forces. The militia’s founder, Qais Khazali, recently expressed gratitude for the government's position in pushing out the coalition forces. On the other hand, Kurdish leaders in the northern region have signaled their willingness to maintain a limited U.S. presence beyond 2026, underscoring the complexity of the situation.

A Two-Decade Legacy

The agreement brings to a close an era that began with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, launched under the pretense of dismantling weapons of mass destruction that were never found. At the height of the conflict, more than 170,000 American troops were stationed in Iraq, a figure that steadily decreased after the defeat of ISIS in 2017.

While the formal coalition combat mission against ISIS ended in 2021, around 2,500 U.S. troops remained in the country to assist Iraqi forces with training and joint counter-ISIS operations. Their continued presence has played a crucial role in limiting the activities of Iranian-backed militias and disrupting weapons movement through Iraq and Syria.

As the U.S. prepares to draw down its forces once more, the future of Iraq’s security, particularly its efforts to maintain stability amidst regional tensions, remains in focus. Tara Copp’s analysis for AP underscores the enduring significance of the U.S.-Iraq relationship, especially as it transitions into a more advisory and bilateral role.