China has credited itself with a victory following the withdrawal of the BRP Teresa Magbanua of the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) from the contested Escoda Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), raising the prospect of a replay of a 2012 incident.

The usual Beijing megaphone was ebullient about the sudden retreat which the PCG said came after their mission was accomplished, but was obscure on what was achieved.

Based on the tone of the Chinese pronouncement, a swarming of ships like what happened at Scarborough Shoal in 2012 as a prelude to a massive land reclamation is likely.

It appears China is worried of a repeat of what happened at Ayungin Shoal where the BRP Sierra Madre was intentionally grounded to create an outpost for hardened Philippine Marines.

What happened in 2012 at Scarborough Shoal between Philippine and China forces may likely be played out at Escoda Shoal after the PCG withdrew its ship.

On 16 June 2012, the government on the pretext of bad weather ordered a PCG patrol vessel and a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources survey ship to sail home, which left China in control of Scarborough Shoal.

Statements by various officials regarding the incident indicated that the United States brokered a de-escalation plan for the two-month standoff. The compromise was that Philippine and Chinese ships would withdraw from the critical zone.

China did not leave the area but instead reclaimed the shoal on which it built permanent structures, including an airfield.

While the reasons given for the Teresa Magbanua to sail home were understandable, given that the health of many of its crew had been affected after almost five months anchored near the shoal, no replacement ship is forthcoming, which has opened the door for China to waltz in.

Back then, Presidential Chief Legal Counsel Juan Ponce Enrile had related how back-entry expert Antonio Trillanes IV had bungled a clandestine operation on China that led to the loss of Scarborough Shoal.

Enrile, who reconstructed what happened in 2012, said Trillanes played a pivotal role in the bungled defense of Scarborough Shoal.

China, based on its 10-dash line demarcation, claims Scarborough and Escoda shoals which are within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

Former Ambassador to US Jose Cuisia and the late Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario had sought American help in pressuring China to agree to the terms of withdrawal from Scarborough.

Cuisia admitted approaching the US but claimed its initial suggestion was only for the Philippines to withdraw to avoid a naval skirmish.

“The US’ suggestion was for us to withdraw, but I told them I could not make that recommendation. What I recommended was a simultaneous withdrawal. The US talked to the Chinese ambassador and China agreed,” he narrated.

China reneged on the deal, however, and the US did not do anything about it, Cuisia said.

Enrile then related that the back channel, Trillanes, was closely coordinating with the Chinese during the stalemate up to the pullout of the ships.

But instead of withdrawing, China increased its presence to 77 large vessels.

The impression it gave me was that we were used in that particular situation to protect the interest of the United States,” Enrile said.

He said he was with Trillanes in a crucial meeting with the late President Noynoy Aquino during the standoff.

It was then that Trillanes revealed that he went to China to meet with key officials to discuss the deadlock.

Enrile then asked Trillanes by whose authority he had met with the Chinese, to which Aquino replied that he had given the order.