Right now, the inevitable “jeepney mega-storm” is brewing rapidly, immovable objects (jeepneys) on a violent and inevitable collision with an irresistible force (mass transport modernization). Jeepney strikes have again emerged lately, this time bigger, longer, and prone to greater violence based on the growing anger of operators and drivers who foresee that hunger will stalk their families.

In the recent jeepney strikes, which are becoming bolder, law enforcers and traffic management officials have tended to use force, resorting even to the threat of confiscation, which will not work because it will simply fuel the storm. The use of force is triggered by the fear that they cannot contain the growing protests.

The key to a solution is to first realize the primacy of the social issue — how to deal with massive displacement. The broad estimate of a million families affected nationwide, based on the average of five children per family, is a pessimistic assessment and covers only the ground data.

If you take a helicopter view and take into account downstream industries, especially in the production of jeepneys, the assessment can easily quadruple. The complex jeepney industry defies analysis and estimation. Perhaps it can be as high as a trillion-peso a year mega-industry.

Therefore, in the modernization of the mass transport system, the more we fast-track and use brute force, the greater the storm. The government must first keep its cool and not panic and not make drastic moves. Second, it has to be creative in its forward planning.

Replacing the omnipresent jeepney is a monstrous task which defies implementation. Consider the following: 1) the time frame may take 10 years or more; 2) the cost may be in the trillions of pesos; 3) hundreds or even thousands of processing centers must be set up nationwide with focus on big cities, especially Metro Manila; 4) politicians drooling for a takeover of the windfall from replacing the jeepney, and making new laws for vested interests, must be neutralized; 5) modernization must be preceded by intense research on alternatives.

The European standards of the environment-friendly “Euro engines” are for affluent nations and are out of the question. Back in 2019, one Euro-4 engine, which the transport people were eyeing, cost a staggering P1.6 million. Converting, for starters, say 300,000 jeepneys nationwide to Euro-4 will cost a dizzying P447 billion using 2019 prices, not to mention how long it would take. (Source: UPLB scientists interviewed).

The Euro-1 to Euro-3 versions became obsolete so fast, and the five-year-old Euro-4 may already be also obsolete now, if not soon. They are moving out of control so fast that we in the Third World think they are all crazy.

Modernization has to be based on the “appropriate technology,” meaning homegrown, using local materials and know-how, to keep fares down for the already economically beleaguered mass commuters. The figure the transport people gave in 2019 was a minimum of P30 per commuter for the shortest ride. Our alternative must be affordable, meaning less sophisticated and less environment-friendly but good enough and financially reachable.

This article is the tip of the iceberg. There are so many more factors to consider in a monstrous feat like the elusive mass transportation model which is our goal.

Some tips for the transport people: 1) do a lot of consultations and dialogues with drivers, operators, and jeepney makers before making decrees which may be theoretical and unimplementable; 2) consider their needs and make them part of the modernization instead of it displacing them; 3) get the advice of finance experts; 4) keep in consideration the modernization time frame; 5) consult social welfare experts.

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