Decoy deals

The recent air and naval skirmishes just go to prove the futility of striking an agreement that is non-binding regarding the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

China and the Philippines recently struck a secretive deal seeking to de-escalate the confrontations over Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal.

A fellow at the US Institute of Peace, Andrew Scobell, said the recent maritime friction again proved the WPS is “one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific,” and “nobody wants to see it escalate to war.”

“The ambiguity (of the deal)” has allowed for the conflicting claims by both sides.

Adding to the wrinkle in the maritime tension is the Philippines is a US treaty ally.

“And the US has made very clear that if this escalates, that would activate the treaty and the US would come in on the side of the Philippines,” Scobell explained.

The ambiguity of the current deal between the neighbors was reflected in the Ayungin Shoal arrangement, the text of which hasn’t been released.

The Philippine side said the resupply mission after the agreement went without a hitch.

China then claimed that it had supervised the whole resupply operation, which implied its permission was sought.

The Philippines, nonetheless, denied that it had approached China before the resupply mission, saying it was a routine operation.

In sum, China is likely buying time for a more favorable situation either in the Philippines or more strategically with the US.

Scobell believes that the Chinese assume, rightly or wrongly, that if Trump wins the election, there may be a change, that there may be more wiggle room to advance China’s interests.

“Whether that’s true or not is another matter. But I think the Chinese are paying very close attention to US politics, and they want to maintain good or relatively good relations with the US. So I think that it’s a wait-and-see approach and disagreement, which buys China some time,” he said.

Scobell added: “What is the long game for the Chinese? I think it’s that they’re trying to buy time to assess their next steps. And you mentioned just before this interview, you mentioned the US presidential election. One can’t help but speculate that the Chinese are waiting to see the outcome of the US election before they decide on their next move.”

An ambiguous pact also works for the benefit of China since it can be manipulated to suit its aims.

For instance, China now insists that it’s not and does not wish to interfere with the commercial shipping lanes of the world.

“What China has been most vocal about is they don’t like the US and other countries, but especially the US Navy in particular, transiting the South China Sea. And the Chinese insist that they should have the right to be notified in advance of any US Naval activity,” Scobell said.

The Chinese position runs counter to most countries’ understanding of international law, whereas freedom of navigation should be observed in these waters, according to Scobell.

Aversion to a binding pact is thus expected since such can’t be subjected to manipulation as the parties involved are required to follow a defined set of rules.

The agreement that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is to seal is a Code of Conduct (CoC) that will apply to overlapping territories in the South China Sea but the negotiations have been stalled for the past 20 years over Beijing’s insistence that its expansive historical claim be included in the agreement.

ASEAN has set 2028 as the date for an agreement, yet China is suddenly silent about the CoC and has shifted to the fine-tuning of the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties (DoC), based on messages coming from the usual mouthpieces.

The difference is, unlike the CoC, the DoC is non-binding and it has been the document that China frequently uses to harass other nations in the SCS conflict.