Phl economic managers expect Q2 GDP to accelerate

The economic managers on Tuesday expect the country's economy to hit 6.0 percent in the second quarter due to higher household spending and easing inflation rate.

On the sidelines of the Post-SONA Discussions in Pasay City, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan expects the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate from the 5.7 percent in the three months prior and the 4.3 percent in the second quarter of 2023.

The government has aimed for a GDP growth rate of 6 percent to 7 percent for 2024.

“It's probably close to at least the lower end of the target,” Balisacan said, adding that the most recent indicators suggest improved GDP growth figures for the second quarter.

Balisacan stated that the most recent indicators suggest improved GDP growth figures for the second quarter.

The NEDA chief said the employment numbers were fine and exports for the first half are turning out well.

Data from the May Labor Force Survey showed that the country's employment rate was 95.9 percent, with 48.87 million people having jobs or livelihoods during that time.

Additionally, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported that exports from January to May totaled $30.84 billion, a 7.8 percent increase from $28.61 billion in the same period last year.

“These are pretty good indicators. I'll wait for a few more numbers, especially the official data,” Balisacan said.

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, for his part, said the biggest economic growth driver would still be household consumption.

The most recent data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) indicated that bank lending reached a 14-month high of P12 trillion in May, showing a 10.1 percent year-on-year increase, the fastest growth since March 2023.

At the same time, during its latest policy meeting, the Monetary Board of the central bank maintained policy rates at 17-year highs, despite lowering its risk-adjusted inflation outlook for 2024 to 3.8 percent from the previous 4.0 percent.

"Household consumption is number one, and that’s supported by what we see on bank lending and credit cards, in spite of high interest rates,” Recto said.