Rain, not shine: SONAs and bad weather through the years

As Filipinos gear up for President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s (PBBM) third State of the Nation Address (SONA) today, 22 July 2024, they must also brace for rain and possible floods. Parts of the country are experiencing heavy rainfall due to the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat, as well as the lingering influence of Severe Tropical Storm Carina, which currently refuses to drift out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Given that the SONA typically falls during the rainy season, the country is no stranger to inclement weather on one of our most important days of the year. Let's look back at the last few SONAs and see how they have been affected by rains and flooding, based on weather advisories issued by PAGASA before each Address.

24 July 2023 (PBBM)

The presence of Tropical Cyclone Egay inside the PAR and the re-emergence of Habagat dominated the weather forecast during PBBM's second SONA. On Monday, 24 July, Tropical Cyclone Egay was expected to intensify into a typhoon and was estimated to be 660 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora. Given its distance from Metro Manila, the weather condition was partly cloudy in the morning, becoming cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

25 July 2022 (PBBM)

The dominant weather system affecting the Philippine archipelago during PBBM's first SONA was the expected formation of a Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of the country, which activated the monsoonal trough. On Monday, 25 July, most parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao experienced cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The National Capital Region (NCR) and the rest of Luzon was expected to experience humid weather, apart from afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Light southeasterly and easterly winds prevailed throughout the archipelago, and coastal waters were slight except during thunderstorms.

26 July 2021 (President Rodrigo Roa Duterte)

The Habagat continued to be the dominant weather system for days preceding this SONA. By Monday, 26 July, the western section of Luzon, including Metro Manila, was forecast to experience cloudy skies with scattered light to moderate, at times heavy rains, and isolated thunderstorms. No tropical cyclone was expected. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds prevailed, and Manila Bay conditions ranged from moderate to rough.

Over the past few years, the SONA has often coincided with heavy rains, thunderstorms, and even typhoons, due to the presence of the Southwest Monsoon and other weather disturbances. As Filipino drivers and commuters face similar conditions today, they will no doubt be hoping they get home safely in time to watch PBBM deliver his 3rd SONA.