State weather bureau PAGASA’s latest track and intensity forecast of severe tropical storm ‘Carina' (international name Gaemi) shows that it has steadily intensified, moving northwestward over the Philippine Sea on Monday morning.

As of 10:00 AM, its center was estimated at 355 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, moving northwestward at a 15-kilometer per hour (km/h) pace.

It recorded maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and a central pressure of 985 hectoPascals (hPa).

PAGASA warned of strong to storm-force winds, possibly extending outwards up to 340 km from the center.

Signal No. 1

As of this writing, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) No. 1 has been raised over Batanes, the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga), including the eastern portion of the Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Is., Babuyan Is.), and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon) .

PAGASA warned residents of these areas of minimal to minor impacts due to strong winds. 

Heavy rainfall outlook

The forecasted accumulated rainfall from Monday to Tuesday noon is 100 to 200 millimeters (mm) for the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan and 50 to 100 mm for the Babuyan Islands and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.

On the other hand, a rainfall of 100 to 200 mm is expected for Batanes. and 50 to 100 mm for the Babuyan Islands and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan are estimated from Tuesday noon to Wednesday noon.

From Wednesday noon to Thursday noon, 50 to 100 mm of rainfall are projected in Batanes.

PAGASA said forecast rainfall is generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas, thus warning the public for possible flooding and rain-induced landslides, especially in areas that are highly or very susceptible to these hazards as identified in official hazard maps and in localities that have experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by ‘Carina’ will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon on Monday night through Wednesday, they added.

Track and intensity outlook

‘Carina’  is seen to move generally northward from today until Tuesday.

Citing a favorable environment, PAGASA said that ‘Carina’  is seen to steadily intensify over the next four days and is forecast to reach the typhoon category within 12 hours.  

The weather bureau also noted that rapid intensification within the forecast period is likely.

‘Carina’, as of press time, is estimated to remain far from the Philippine landmass and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday night or Thursday early morning.