Will a hotline solve Phl-Sino discord?

The landmark Philippine Maritime Zones Act, when signed into law by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., will serve as a cornerstone of the Philippines’ maritime policy, codifying the country’s rights and entitlements over its maritime zones.

But how the passage by the bicameral conference committee of the landmark bill and its imminent enactment into law by the President will ease tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea (SCS), particularly in the country’s exclusive economic zone which China claims as its own, remains to be seen.

Still, a positive result of the Bilateral Consultation on the South China Sea between Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs Ma. Theresa Lazaro and Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong in Manila last 2 July is an arrangement that would provide channels of communication on maritime issues between Manila and Beijing.

A draft and guidelines are being drawn and once a memorandum of understanding is finalized, these lines of communication would directly connect representatives of President Marcos and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two countries’ foreign ministers, and the Philippine and China Coast Guards.

That and the impending enactment of the Philippine Maritime Zones Act into law are welcome developments and we can only hope they’re able to change the dynamics of the relationship between the two countries for the better. They must because further deterioration in relations caused by tensions in the WPS could very well have even more deleterious effects on the Philippine economy.

China, to this day, continues to be the Philippines’ largest trading partner, a major source of imports for the latter, and a significant market for exports. The reality is, pointed out the Bank of America (BofA) in a report in May, “Chinese companies figure prominently in power and telecommunication and could have been a possible major source of loans and investments in roads, rails and dams that were offered, but were not pursued.”

The BofA said that if China wages an economic war on the Philippines, the trade imbalance between the two countries could further widen. The Philippines, since 2015, has had a speedily growing trade imbalance with China.

Added the bank, “The decline in Philippine exports to China, tourism and investments from China appear worse than with the rest of the world. Increased tensions between the two countries over conflicting claims in the South China Sea could potentially have a meaningful impact on the Philippine economy if relations deteriorate further.”

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan insists the government’s efforts to protect Philippine territorial rights over its exclusive economic zone in the WPS “should not be seen as an effort to undermine our economic relations” with China.

The Philippines continue to put great importance on its economic relationship with China, maintains Balisacan, and “our position on the SCS dispute need not negatively affect our economic ties.”

Balisacan’s sentiments are shared by Stratbase ADR Institute public policy and governance specialist Shanice Espiritu who stresses that “regarding the WPS, the Marcos (Jr.) administration has made it clear that the WPS is not the entirety of our relationship with China, and our economic relations with China will continue.”

That may be so, but parallel to moves in the diplomatic realm meant to de-escalate the tensions between the two countries are actions by China that can only be perceived as intimidation.

For instance, Commodore Jay Tarriela of the National Task Force for the WPS says the largest coast guard ship in the world, CCG vessel 5901 dubbed “The Monster,” has been anchored near Escoda or Sabina Shoal in the WPS — just some 75 nautical miles from Palawan province, since early July.

The PCG’s BRP Teresa Magbanua has been monitoring the shoal since May because of concerns that China might attempt to build another artificial island in that part of the WPS. Then, in early July, PCG personnel spotted the over 12,000 ton, 165-meter long CCG 5901 behemoth in the area.

Retired US Air Force Col. Ray Powell explains that more than anything else, the “Monster”’s raison d’etre is to intimidate. “There is no reason for a ship that large to be in the coast guard. Because of its size, it’s not quick to maneuver, a feature you’d want from a coast guard vessel,” he says.

The CCG 5901, says Powell, is a “billboard” which China uses to declare and assert its claim in the SCS.

Today, the “Monster” remains at Escoda Shoal, even as Manila and Beijing are going through the motions of establishing communication channels as a means of diffusing tensions in the WPS if and when these arise.

Speaking about a “hot line” between the Philippines and China, this is not the first time that such a communication mechanism will be put in place.

At their bilateral meeting in Beijing in January last year, President Marcos and President Xi agreed on a line of communication between the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs and China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs with the intention of preventing untoward incidents in the WPS. Since then that “hot line” has grown cold. There was no letup on Chinese aggression; it even grew more intense until the 17 June 2024 incident when a resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal turned violent, with China Coast Guard personnel ramming and boarding the sea craft manned by Filipino servicemen, one of whom had a thumb cut off.

After that incident, another talk (2 July) was held, and yet another “hot line” will soon be put in place.

How all this will be used to once and for all reconcile the two countries’ differences in policies, goals and actions regarding the Philippines’ EEZ in the WPS which, honestly, we don’t see the Chinese giving up its sovereign claim over, hangs in the air.