Stirring hornet’s nest

The recent filing by the Philippines of a claim for an extended continental shelf before the United Nations created ripples that not only angered China but triggered concerns from Malaysia and Vietnam.

Regional experts are not worried, however, as they expect the backlash not to escalate beyond stern words.

The Philippines’ submission was in the works for more than 15 years, the delay caused by the government’s long wait for an opportunity, Dr. Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said.

If not handled properly, the choppy geopolitical waters in the contested seaway could boil over into conflict, analysts warn, especially with an increasingly assertive Beijing.

“The last thing they want is for something big to happen just because of the Philippines’ submission,” Koh explained.

On 15 June, the Philippines submitted to the United Nations a claim seeking recognition of an extended continental shelf in the South China Sea, off the western island of Palawan.

Manila claimed it was entitled to establish the outer limits of its continental shelf up to 350 nautical miles, the maximum allowed under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

China’s reaction was expected as it sent a diplomatic note to the UN appealing that the international body reject outright the Philippines’ submission, saying it seriously infringed on China’s “sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the South China Sea.”

China’s action was reflective of its intensified efforts to assert its territorial claims.

Analysts said the Philippines’ position on the West Philippine Sea was firmed up under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., parallel to the warming of relations with the United States. This was in stark contrast to the policy of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who sought closer relations with China.

“From a domestic standpoint, the enabling factors are there … it might not have been possible (previously), especially when Duterte was president,” Koh said.

Not expected were the reactions of Malaysia and Vietnam who came out swinging, submitting their own diplomatic notes to the UN “categorically” rejecting Manila’s filing on the basis of the extended continental shelf being “projected from the baselines of the Malaysian state of Sabah.”

The Malaysian Foreign Ministry sent on 7 July a diplomatic note reiterating the country’s sovereignty.

“The note by the Philippines stated that they took into consideration that the maritime border runs through Sabah,” the Malaysian note said.

Vietnam also reacted, although it was more subdued. Hanoi said it was willing to talk with Manila to seek measures in line with both their interests, a position the Philippines has welcomed.

Analysts believe Vietnam does not want to disturb its focus on its economy. Even if there are disagreements, Hanoi is expected to voice them privately, in line with the country’s longstanding practice.

Vietnam also doesn’t want any signs of discord within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, considering that the regional grouping is a cornerstone of its foreign policy, an analyst said. (To be continued)