The world has accepted an imminent second Donald Trump administration even before the Pennsylvania incident but the probability has been ramped up still higher after the assassination try.
The violent attack on Trump induced euphoria among his followers which is expected, in turn, to stimulate a bandwagon effect. Americans tend to come together for a cause whenever they perceive a serious threat.
Thus, with a few months remaining until the US polls, the Philippines should seriously contemplate an existence of at least four years under the firebrand US leader who had made known his priority for domestic issues.
Diplomatic officials, however, are unperturbed, saying that no radical shifts are expected.
Trump’s preference for having American troops sparingly deployed may reduce the presence of US soldiers and assets in the Philippines, to be replaced by more trainings as a token of involvement in combat readiness.
During his first term, he told the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other nations where American troops are deployed that compensation would be demanded from them.
Regional experts have issued an outlook in which troop withdrawals would be common that may result in changes in the implementation of defense cooperation agreements.
Trump holds a critical position on defense agreements in which the burden is stacked high on the US side.
At one point, Trump suggested that Russia attack members of NATO who had not met their financial obligations. Of course, it was part rhetoric to fire up the crowd during a February campaign speech.
Still, the Trump administration is expected to keep the pressure on China which is perceived as an economic rival of the United States.
The territorial disputes involving China go beyond the West Philippine Sea and involve important trading routes that will affect the whole international community and thus will have an impact on the US economy and security.
To fully protect domestic interests, Trump will have to continue taking resolute steps in the region, according to a geopolitical analyst.
The pullout of foreign forces from the Philippines under Trump may even have a positive effect on the current maritime tension as Beijing’s anxiety is usually triggered by events that point to an increased American presence.
“The Republicans are more conservative. Trump might think twice about military support for the Philippines,” the analyst said.
In his first crack at the presidency, Trump threatened to reduce US troops’ presence in Japan and South Korea, which rankled not only the countries involved but also the world since the region has a good share of problematic nations.
Some experts said the real test of the US’ oft-repeated ironclad commitment to the mutual defense treaty will come if he wins in November.
In choosing between protecting the Philippines and US interests, Trump is not expected to give priority to another country.
Under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the Philippines gave the United States access to four new military sites under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which is believed aimed at deterring any potential Beijing aggression against Taiwan.
A more active defense of the country’s territorial rights based on the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling has been happening under Marcos.
The events in the region have always had the United States prominently involved, which China has continually protested.
Signed in 2014, EDCA supplements the Visiting Forces Agreement, a 1999 bilateral pact that provides a legal basis for large-scale joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines.
Lately, the number of Philippine military bases US forces can access has been expanded to nine from five.
Trump, as a foremost mogul, has pragmatic considerations for the cost of US involvement and the benefits to his nation, which is a position that will weigh heavily on the world when he assumes power.
