As a student and practitioner of politics for decades, I am amazed by the maneuvering and positioning of the regional political parties in the run-up to the maiden parliamentary election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) next year.

There are regional political parties that have started forming coalitions and alliances. This makes for a good case study and discussion among students of politics and government. This is peculiar in a parliamentary setting.

Normally, political parties seek coalitions after elections when no single party is able to get the required number of deputies or representatives to form the government of the day. In such a case, they must form alliances with other political parties in order to reach the threshold majority. This is especially true for political parties that share identical advocacies. We see this in the parliamentary setup in Europe and our neighbor Malaysia.

But in the BARMM, we find it strange that they have already formed coalitions before the election — the process by which political parties compete against each other to elect more deputies or representatives to the parliament.

Presently, there has been formed the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition (BGC) of political parties comprised of the SALAAM party of Governor Abdusakur Tan of Sulu; the Samahan Inclusivo Alyansa Progresibo (SIAP) headed by Governor Mamintal Bombit Adiong Jr. of Lanao del Sur; the ITTIHAD headed by wife and husband, respectively, Governor Marriam Sangki Mangudadatu and TESDA Secretary Suharto Teng Mangudadatu; and the party of Congressman Mujiv Hataman of Basilan. From where I sit, this early, I can say the BGC is the formidable alliance to beat.

More strange is the fact that the BGC has already identified its nominee for Chief Minister — the political kingpin of Sulu, Governor Abdusakur Tan. Before the choice was made, there were names mentioned like Governor Bombit Adiong Jr., the favorite son of Lanao del Sur who has stayed in power for decades, as a strong contender. In fact, some political analysts predict that if for any reason Governor Tan will not be able to make it, Governor Bombit can fill in the lacuna.

But the choice of Tan did not come as a surprise given his popularity and staying political power which has transformed Sulu from a conflict-torn province to what it is now, more in the news for its tourism potential than as a lair of the Abu Sayyaf outlaws. Moreover, Tan exudes a gravitas that commands respect among his peers and his long political sway in his fiefdom gave him a halo of strong leadership and obeisance other Muslim leaders do not possess. It was a relief to many that Governor Bombit, although he did not aspire for it, gave way to Governor Tan all in the interest of unity, camaraderie, peace among the coalition partners and the ultimate victory of the BGC.

Pitted against the BGC is the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBMP), the party of rebel group MILF which presently holds the reins of power in the BARMM government. And there are reports that the party of another rebel group, lead by Muslimen Sema, will forge an alliance with the UBJP.

However, another report which was played out on social media said the MNLF which is identified with Chairman Nur Misuari and his children, who are members of the interim Regional Parliament, are joining the BGC, dealing a serious blow to the UBJP.

Following the political principle of the equity of the incumbent, interim Chief Minister Ahod Murad Ibrahim, the UBJP’s choice for Chief Minister, should be shoo-in. The fly in the ointment is the alleged revelation by Governor Jun Tamayo of a reshuffling in the BARMM, including the replacement of Ibrahim by Governor Abdulraof Makakua of Maguindanao del Norte.

The electoral face-off between the BGC and UBJP will be interesting. It will be a referendum of sorts on how the ordinary people in the region view the rebels vis-a-vis the traditional politicians.

A political battle royale looms large on the regional political horizon.

amb_mac_lanto@yahoo.com