Alarming or alarmist?

The rising tensions between the Philippines and China have taken a dangerous turn, fueled by allegations by Senator Imee Marcos of hypersonic missile targeting the Philippines and covert infiltration being undertaken by Beijing. While vigilance is essential, this complex, hair-trigger situation requires a clear head, responsible communication, and a robust defense strategy.

Senator Marcos’s claim that China has trained missiles on strategic Philippine locations like Batanes, Subic, and Ilocos is deeply concerning.

These areas may serve as magnets for attack by China due to their strategic significance and the recent military activities by the Philippines and its allies led by the United States. The senator’s fears were linked to the presence of BrahMos missiles and the holding of live-fire exercises, which she believes have made these locations primary targets.

However, such pronouncements, particularly on social media platforms like TikTok and Facebook, risk stoking public fear without her office providing concrete evidence. Panic serves no one, and unsubstantiated claims can undermine trust and hinder effective responses to genuine threats.

Senator Marcos should provide credible evidence to support her claim. Alarmist rhetoric, especially through unverified channels, weakens public trust in governmental communication and may create an atmosphere conducive to misinformation.

Equally troubling is China’s ambiguous response. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning’s platitudes about peaceful development do little to dispel the shadows cast by Marcos’ allegations. Clear and unequivocal denials are necessary to de-escalate tensions. Vague pronouncements about “legitimate rights and interests” leave room for doubt and suspicion.

This lack of clarity from China is particularly galling in light of the 2016 arbitral ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague. The tribunal, constituted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), decisively rejected China’s sweeping claims to the South China Sea.

The ruling upheld the Philippines’ sovereign rights within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), as defined by UNCLOS. China, however, has consistently disregarded this ruling, continuing its aggressive actions in the disputed waters.

With rising tensions in the South China Sea, which overlaps the WPS, the Philippines must tread carefully. Armed Forces chief General Romeo Brawner’s focus on intelligence gathering and countering disinformation through the West Philippine Sea MULAT plan is a crucial step.

His efforts to expose alleged economic infiltration through tactics like illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) deserve unwavering support. POGOs, ostensibly catering to overseas markets, have been linked to money laundering, cybercrime, and social unrest within the Philippines. These operations represent a potential security threat that cannot be ignored.

We’d like to think that the presence of US military assets in the region serves as a deterrent against aggression by China and bolsters Philippine defenses. Joint military exercises and advanced weaponry like the BrahMos missiles are crucial elements in this strategy.

As we are facing a Goliath in China, the Philippines should leverage its partnership with the United States to secure advanced equipment and enhance its own military capabilities, ensuring a credible deterrent against Chinese aggression. At the same time, the Philippines should seek to strengthen regional partnerships with other Southeast Asian nations with competing claims in the South China Sea.

A united front against Chinese expansionism would send a powerful message and potentially deter further aggression by Beijing. Diplomacy and a rules-based international order, as underlined by UNCLOS, must be the guiding principles in resolving these disputes.

Ultimately, a robust defense posture will be the Philippines’ strongest bulwark against Chinese aggression. The Philippines must invest in its domestic capabilities. This includes strengthening its coast guard, modernizing its military, and bolstering its maritime security infrastructure. A well-equipped and well-trained Filipino force will project a stronger image of deterrence.

Investing in economic diversification is equally important. Overreliance on China for trade and investment weakens the Philippines’ bargaining position. Developing new economic partnerships with other nations will lessen dependence on China and provide the Philippines with greater leverage in future negotiations.

The Philippines must also continue to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the South China Sea disputes. This includes actively participating in multilateral forums and pursuing diplomatic channels to find common ground with China. Open communication and a commitment to peaceful coexistence are essential for regional stability.