The Philippines will import 3.8-million metric tons (MMT) of rice next year, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has predicted.

Meanwhile, local rice consumption next year is expected to be over 17-MMT, while domestic production of the staple grain is estimated to be 13-MMT.

In the next five years, or by 2029, rice imports are seen to hit 4.5-MMT, with local consumption at 18-MMT and domestic rice harvest at 14-MMT.

In 2033, the Philippines is forecast to procure rice overseas at a volume of nearly 5.1-MMT, with local consumption at 19-MMT and domestic rice production at 14-MMT.

According to FAO’s latest agricultural outlook, global rice production is seen to increase by 60-MMT to reach 587-MMT by 2033.

“Yield improvements are expected to drive this growth. Production expansions in Asian countries, which account for the bulk of global rice output, are expected to be robust,” the report said, noting that India is expected to have the highest growth and is poised to become the largest rice producer worldwide in 2033, followed by the least developed countries in the Asian region, including the Philippines.

USDA forecast

According to a United States Department of Agriculture report in June, the Philippines will remain the top rice importer globally next year at 4.7-MMT following a reduction in its import tariff.

The estimated import volume is 500,000-MT, up from its forecast of 4.2-MMT in May. The USDA attributed the volume increment to “rising consumption with the reduced tariff.”

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order 62 on 20 June directing the modification of nomenclature and tariff rates on various products to ensure the continuous supply of goods and to protect the purchasing power of Filipinos.

Duty rates under the order for imported rice are expected to decrease by P6 to P7. This reduction in rice tariffs for both in- and out-quota rates will be in effect until 2028.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. earlier said that slashing the duty on imported rice from 35 percent to 15 percent was a reasonable move, as this would relieve the pressure on the people as the staple grain prices in the world market were very high.