Detente about time

After the heated Showdown at the Shoal on 17 June that resulted in injuries to Philippine Navy personnel, the mood has shifted to negotiations.

The allies — the United States and the Philippines — are sending feelers to China to negotiate.

While the effort is awkward as Beijing has been the aggressor in the skirmishes as evidenced by the recent Ayungin Shoal face-off, the gesture shows that peace must be the overarching goal.

The protagonists, nonetheless, must work toward a long-term solution that would require a reorientation of China’s position, which appears next to impossible at the moment.

Nonetheless, the US wants to be in a position of strength if China agrees to sit down at the negotiating table.

The western superpower said a joint maritime exercise with the Philippines is planned in the coming weeks as a “show of support for a key ally.”

Pentagon officials said the war games were not decided on the spur of the moment but were preplanned and are not meant to antagonize China despite being held in the disputed West Philippine Sea and possibly involve other US allies like Australia and Japan.

Efforts to reduce the heat by downplaying the recent incident were evident after security officials said an attack did not happen, along with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s pronouncement that “we are not in the business of instigating wars.”

While the Philippines tries to start negotiations, the US is staying on the sidelines but with a reminder that “our support for the Philippines is very publicly clear.”

Since the incident, US officials were reported to be debating an appropriate response at “the highest levels.”

The quandary for the US is that it knows that something needs to be done but it does not want to “commit to something that could spiral out of control. That’s very much a factor at play.”

The recent sea skirmish has bonded nations in the region due to the “deeply destabilizing” actions of China.

A Pentagon official said the “level of anxiety among countries in the region is now very high,” adding that the “Chinese have miscalculated here.”

The National Security Council feels that China also wants a de-escalation based on official and non-official channels and to find common ground and a solution to the problem.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo told a Senate inquiry the Philippines will work hard to bring China back to the negotiating table.

Negotiating with China would entail coming to terms with a possible deception as has been transpiring lately.

Thus, the Philippines should have an “open mind” if China decides to discuss the matter, according to a top security official.

By an open mind, he meant the negotiating team should consider negotiating through false narratives like China’s insistence on its historical claims.

We know there is a possibility of deception; we are not sure about their sincerity but that does not mean we will not talk to them.

What is expected to happen next is the resumption of the negotiations between China and the Philippines that started in January which has the goal of holding periodic consultations.

The negotiations should also not disregard the 2016 arbitration tribunal award that invalidated Beijing’s expansive maritime claims.

The international court declared that China’s claim did not have any basis in existing laws, which is a ruling that China said it does not recognize.

Principled peace must be the product of the negotiations that will take place.