Closer to the ‘red line’

The injuries to the Filipino sailors certainly brings us closer to the “red line” laid down earlier by President Marcos Jr. that China mustn’t cross in the ongoing tense standoffs in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

The military didn’t detail the extent of the injuries sustained by at least eight Filipino sailors in Monday’s clashes with the China Coast Guard (CCG) in the waters near Ayugin Shoal.

A TV station, however, reported that one sailor lost his thumb during the high seas melee that followed the “high speed” ramming and boarding of two Filipino rigid hull boats by CCG personnel in eight speedboats.

The military said the sailors fought with their “bare hands” an unknown number Chinese coast guard personnel armed with machetes, spears and knives.

New reports said five of injured sailors, which this newspaper reported as belonging to the Navy’s elite Naval Special Operations Group (Navsog), were later rescued by two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ships.

Monday’s clash was the third instance of Filipino sailors being injured in clashes with Chinese naval forces during the Philippine military’s monthly “routine rotation and resupply” mission to the derelict BRP Sierra Madre garrison.

In a resupply mission last March, four sailors were hurt after CCG vessels directed intense water cannon blasts on a Filipino boat.

Apparently the two Philippine rubber boats in Monday’s incident were towed away by the CCG, trashed and emptied of their contents, including eight rifles still inside its cases. The sailors were earlier ordered not to brandish their firearms.

The abandoned boats, one of which was deliberately punctured, were later recovered.

This was the first reported instance of the Chinese “towing” – defined as pulling, pushing or hauling – a Filipino vessel in the continuing confrontations at the WPS.

The Philippine military has accused the CCG personnel of acting like “pirates.”

Filipino sailors sustaining injuries, however, raises more concerns as this stokes profound fears of erupting into a wider clash that will draw in the US and other allies of the country.

Monday’s serious clash — which the Pentagon said “will trigger something bigger, more violent” — and the injuries it caused means matters are inching closer to such a scenario.

While no Filipino has been killed so far in these escalating clashes, no one can entirely predict there won’t be a Filipino fatality once these intensify further.

In fact, a single Filipino death will bring down President Marcos Jr.’s “red line” by which he differentiates harassment from an act of war.

Last month in Singapore, Marcos warned Beijing, saying that if a Filipino serviceman or citizen were deliberately killed in a clash, this would be “very close to what we define as an act of war.”

In the view of the Chief Executive, therefore, the death of any Filipino at sea will be more than enough reason to declare war with China and to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States.

So far, however, the Marcos administration hasn’t indicated if it would invoke the MDT in the face of the latest serious clash at Ayungin. In its latest communique, the Defense establishment only demanded that China exercise “full restraint.”

The United States, meanwhile, remains ambiguous about President Marcos’s “red line” warning. The US, however, strongly maintains the MDT is an “ironclad” security arrangement.

In an official reaction to the latest clash at Ayungin, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller reiterated that the United States remains committed to the 1951 MDT, which he said “extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft — including those of its Coast Guard — anywhere in the South China Sea.”

Monday’s clash, meanwhile, elicited vociferous condemnations locally and raised international alarm over the CCG’s latest escalatory tactics. Hardly anyone believes China’s assertion that “the responsibility (for the clash) lies with the Philippines.”