The Philippines is forecasted to maintain its position as the world’s top rice importer in 2025, with import volumes expected to rise to 4.7-million metric tons (MMT), according to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA’s recent rice overview for the 2024-2025 period indicates that global rice production and exports are largely stable. However, it highlights an increase in global rice imports and consumption, particularly driven by demand from the Philippines and Kenya.

“Global stocks are forecast up driven by India and the Philippines, more than offsetting decreases for Pakistan and Vietnam,” the report stated.

For the Philippines, the USDA projects a total rice import volume of 4.7 MMT for the next year, an increase of 500,000 MT from the previous forecast of 4.2 MMT in May. This rise is attributed to growing consumption and the impact of reduced tariffs.

The USDA has also adjusted its estimates for the Philippines’ rice imports for the current year, raising it to 4.6 MMT from the earlier forecast of 4.1 MMT in March. This adjustment reflects the Philippine government’s decision to lower import tariffs on rice to 15 percent until 2028.

On 4 June, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) announced the reduction in rice tariffs as a measure to make rice more affordable. NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan confirmed that the 15-percent tariff rate, applicable to both in-quota and out-quota imports, would be in place through 2028.

In a related development, Vietnam, a major rice exporter, has increased its exports from 8 MMT to 8.3 MMT this year, bolstered by strong demand from countries including Indonesia and the Philippines.

The USDA noted that the Philippines will continue to be the world’s largest rice importer this year, a title it held in 2023. Congressional data shows that in 2023, the Philippines imported approximately 3.8 MMT of rice to supplement its domestic production of 13.43 MMT.

As the country braces for another year as the leading rice importer, the effects of tariff reductions and rising consumption will play significant roles in shaping the Philippine rice market landscape.