PBBM’s counterpunch vs Gen. Xu

Even in his not-so-smooth manner, PBBM (President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.) drove home the point. Chinese Maj. Gen. Xu Hui told PBBM, as if lecturing him, to focus on the ASEAN principles of “mutual respect and consensus building” — such eloquent ideal goals for China and the Philippines to pursue together.

PBBM had a simple direct reply to Gen. Xu. He said that the conflict in the South China Sea (SCS) was no longer an ASEAN issue but a global one. Gen. Xu’s intent was to exclude the US from Asian affairs, which PBBM dismissed with his reply.

Gen. Xu, in citing the issue of “mutual respect and consensus building,” showed that he is either ignorant of the core issue or his military perspective is warped. Do you call food blockades and the use of water cannons against helpless fishermen “mutual respect and consensus building?” Gen. Xu’s double talk cited ASEAN ideals but he was perhaps unaware of China’s crimes in the SCS, including “buying mountains” to build artificial islands for military bases, and rampant overfishing by Chinese vessels in Philippine waters.

When the IUCN came up with a report on China’s environmental crimes in the SCS, China had the report censored and “unpublished.” Is it hypocrisy or just plain ignorance when ASEAN ideals are cited but on the very crimes that violate these ASEAN ideals there is silence?

The arrogant manner in which Gen. Xu confronted the Philippine President was very undiplomatic, adversarial, and disrespectful. Perhaps it is better for China to assign diplomats rather than generals to argue its cases for it, especially when confronting the President of a nation in an international forum. Gen. Xu fueled adversity rather than harmony while he spoke of “consensus.”

Asian Geopolitics and Philippine Neutrality

Lately, PBBM told the Philippine Coast Guard to stand down, to not trigger conflict in the SCS that would lead to an escalation. In truth, there is wisdom in non-aggression and in standing one’s ground at the same time. It is the delicate balance between benevolence and belligerence that avoids the escalation we may not be ready for, in spite of the mutual defense treaty with the US.

In truth, we are the tiny maya (Filipino bird) hemmed in by two Goliaths, two predators, the American eagle and the Chinese bear. We must be careful to balance precariously on the rope in the tug-of-war of these two giants. Neutrality, which may be the best option, where we are not involved in their war that would simply make us victims of collateral damage, is perhaps out of the question, because both are threatening us to side with them. Neutrality is not an option when the Eagle and the Bear collide.

The situation in the SCS is getting worse due to two critical factors: 1) China insists on protecting its many military bases, the infrastructure for energy extraction; 2) the US insists on protecting the international gateway where more than half of world trade passes through.

There have been many close calls towards full-blown confrontation — US carrier fleets versus Chinese military bases, both armed with deadly missiles and drones, not to mention secret nuclear warheads.

Sophisticated Chinese equipment has been successfully jamming US carrier warplanes patrolling the SCS. The US has enough intel to neutralize Chinese naval bases, if push comes to shove towards a full-blown confrontation.

Meanwhile, China is using its illegal immigrants with fake travel documents to “swarm” and “surround” EDCA bases in the Cagayan Valley in the north and islands near the SCS in the west. On 24 May, the US responded with a massive deployment of AH-60 Apache attack helicopters to Subic Bay, 77 to be exact. These are either harmless psyche war tactics, or preparations towards direct confrontation.

Lately, China has threatened to arrest Filipinos within Philippine territory that has been acknowledged by the international court in The Hague, which is a blatant act of war, and promises a Philippine response. So far it is only a threat.

All these events are slowly evolving towards a full blown US-China confrontation where the Philippines is the rope in their tug-of-war. PBBM must study his moves well in this complex geopolitical conflict, whose results are unpredictable and unimaginable.