Untying the knot

How do you solve a problem like the Spratlys?

Back in the 1980s, when Raul Manglapus was the Foreign Affairs secretary, the late journalist and our friend Julius Fortuna would laughingly hum this line to fellow diplomatic reporters while we were scrambling to meet deadlines.

At the time, there was a dormant hostility in the Philippines-claimed Kalayaan Islands, which are part of the Spratly Group of Islands claimed in whole by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and partly by Malaysia and Brunei.

I was among the reporters who first set foot on Pag-asa Island, the largest in the Kalayaan chain. As defense reporters, the late Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief Gen. Arturo Enrile allowed us to tag along during his visit to the territory. He toured us around what was then a simple and peaceful community with a few Marines operating the makeshift military base. Later, he took  us for the inauguration of the first military radio station there.

The Spratlys are rich in oil and gas reserves and fish, so I sensed that it would not take long for the amicable relations between the Philippines and China, re-established in 1975 through diplomatic exchanges, to turn sour.

In a 1995 press conference in Camp Aguinaldo, then Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado first alerted the nation to China's "creeping invasion" when a Chinese flag was spotted flying over Mischief Reef (Panganiban Reef to the Philippines, Meiji Jiao to China and Vanh Khan to Vietnam), which was well within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.

It was not a benign aggression as not too far away, eight Chinese ships, some of them armed, were in the area. This incident prompted the government to file a diplomatic protest and put the AFP Modernization Law in Congress into motion.

The provocation was a classic example of the one-step-backward, two-step-forward doctrine. The Chinese Navy ships  initially retreated following the protest, but later they returned with a stronger presence and occupied more reefs and shoals.

When we returned to Pag-asa years later in a Philippine Air Force plane, we were surprised to hear over the radio a Chinese speaker warning us to back off as we were supposedly entering Chinese airspace. Despite the tension and fear,  our pilot did not back down and we eventually reached our destination but with much trepidation.

From what started as a simple "temporary fishing sanctuary" for Chinese fishermen, the Chinese military occupation of the disputed territories was completed, and the animosity became full-blown.

Recently, the Chinese Coast Guard, backed by maritime militia ships, fired water cannons at Philippine vessels delivering supplies to a Philippine Navy outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, 240 kilometers off the coast of Palawan province and 900 kilometers from the nearest major Chinese landmass.

Despite the incident, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the commander-in-chief and chief architect of Philippine foreign policy, has sought to de-escalate the latest flare-up and declined a proposal to fire water cannons back at Chinese ships.

The situation highlights how geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes can escalate and lead to potentially dangerous encounters.

The Spratlys issue has always been a global flashpoint because of the overlapping claims after the adoption of the International Law of the Sea concept. There have been reports of sporadic military clashes between China and the other nations with overlapping claims.

Although some Chinese leaders may view diplomacy as a futile delay and are hesitant about third-party arbitration, especially by powerful nations, it remains the most practical approach for all parties involved to settle territorial disputes and prevent any further escalation of the conflict in an era of polycrisis.

Of course, the possibility of untying the knot and having China yield to the Philippines is practically nil, much like Russian President Vladimir Putin's approach to Ukraine. It’s such a poignant reminder of the historical significance of the Spratlys issue, a brewing flashpoint in Asia.

While some claimants' sense of entitlement is off the charts, the only option is to return to rapprochement unless every Filipino is willing to engage in a protracted war with China.

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