NEDA: Phl adjusts growth targets for 2024, remains optimistic

The country's economic managers have revised the country's growth target for 2024 downwards, citing the need for a "more gradual but practical fiscal trajectory," the National Economic and Development Authority said.

In a Palace briefing on Thursday, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the country's GDP growth target for 2024 is now set between 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent target range, down from the 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent range.

Similarly, Balisacan said the targets for 2025 and beyond have been adjusted to 6.5-7.5 percent for 2025 and retained at 6.5-8.0 percent for 2026 to 2028.

Balisacan added that this downward adjustment reflects the government's prioritization of fiscal stability while maintaining a healthy pace of growth.

"These growth targets will sustain the country's position as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region," Balisacan said.

He added that this trajectory will still enable the country to achieve its goal of reducing poverty incidence to a single-digit level by 2028.

Inflation, fiscal management

Meanwhile, Balisacan said the economic managers maintained its inflation target range of 2.0-4.0 percent for 2024 through 2028.

This reflects the government's assessment of internal and external factors impacting prices.

"The inflation outlook considers the monetary policy actions the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is undertaking and the non-monetary strategies and measures the government is implementing," Balisacan said.

Balisacan added that the updated Medium-Term Fiscal Program (MTFP) outlines a more measured approach to fiscal management.

He also mentioned that the government plans to enhance tax administration and pursue legislative reforms to improve revenue collection.

"We project revenues to reach Php 4.270 trillion (16.1 percent of GDP) in 2024 and rise to Php 6.078 trillion (16.4 percent of GDP) by 2028," Balisacan said.

"This aligns with the expected reduction in the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent by 2028," he added.

For the fiscal year 2025, the DBCC proposes a national budget of Php 6.2 trillion. This budget prioritizes investments in public infrastructure projects, essential social services, and programs that target the country's poor and vulnerable populations.

Opportunities, Risks to Growth

Balisacan added the economic Team acknowledges both opportunities and risks to the Philippines' growth outlook.

Opportunities include the potential for increased private sector investment in infrastructure and the anticipated positive impact of the recently enacted Public-Private Partnership Code.

"The full implementation of economic liberalization reforms, including the recently enacted Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Code, will pave the way for greater investor interest," Balisacan said.

Additionally, government initiatives like the Pambansang Pabahay Para sa Pilipino Program (4PH) are expected to boost the construction and real estate sectors.

However, the economic team also identifies potential risks. These include climate change, potential inflation spikes, and a global economic slowdown. Geopolitical tensions and general elections in major economies are also seen as potential threats to trade and investment.

Commitment to Continued Growth and Development

Despite the projected challenges, the Marcos administration remains optimistic about the Philippines' continued economic progress.

"For 2024, the Economic Team will strongly advocate for the enactment of much-needed next-generation reforms," Balisacan said. This includes collaborating with Congress to pass legislation across various sectors.

"The government's dedication transcends meeting statistical targets or numerical benchmarks; we direct our efforts toward realizing a strategic and compelling vision for our nation's prosperity," Balisacan added.

The focus, he emphasized, is on achieving sustained and inclusive growth that benefits all Filipinos. The Philippines aspires to be a frontrunner in the region, known for its resilience and commitment to shared progress.