Mind games start

Pollsters are raising eyebrows about the recent survey on economic Charter change that asked leading questions and showed that most respondents opposed amending the Constitution.

Legislators who reviewed the survey said the questions were irrelevant and were meant to squeeze out an outcome with a certain leaning. Some questions were meant to fuel suspicions on the motive for amending the Constitution and were not about the economic Charter change pending in Congress.

More recently, Pulse Asia released the results of a poll on 2028 election prospects, which surprised many because it did not serve any purpose but to condition the minds of the public.

The poll ranked the presidential chances of personalities and celebrities, asking: “Some say those who can run for the presidency in the 2028 elections are the following. Who would you vote for if the 2028 elections were held today?” Then, a list was provided.

Curiously, the pollster classified the results as part of its “Ulat ng Bayan” series to lend credibility.

These election surveys are never accurate. Pick any particular election poll and compare it with the actual results.

Pollsters, however, earn huge sums from those who commission the surveys in exchange for access to the questions asked.

Before the 2016 elections, an official of a polling firm who sought anonymity revealed that a huge amount was paid to improve the survey rankings of a certain senatorial bet. While the camp of a presidential aspirant forked over as much as P100 million as part of a "mind conditioning" operation. He eventually lost.

The source said he and his colleagues were surprised that some candidates advanced in the rankings when their numbers in the actual surveys that they were privy to showed the opposite.

He cited the case of a candidate who remains a senator and suddenly rose to the 12th spot.

"I knew that he did special operations in the Visayas and Mindanao. So that was the reason his ranking suddenly improved. But why the sudden rise?" the official wanted to know.

He claimed the incumbent senator’s camp paid P5 million to the pollster "to improve his ranking."

“That amount should explain the incredible increase," the whistleblower said.

Other candidates who did not have a hefty campaign kitty suffered. There was the case of a presidential bet who was consistently in the winning circle but was suddenly dislodged to make way for the pollster's patrons.

The source recounted that tensions existed at the polling firm when some of the staff questioned the discrepancies in the poll numbers.

“We were being watched. Several meetings were called to pacify everyone. In fact, we were all demoralized. This should be investigated," he said.

The recent Pulse Asia survey identified 13 senatorial candidates who could win in the May 2024 polls.

Only 13 candidates have statistical chances of making it to the Senate; thus, the earlier they figure in the magic circle, the greater the advantage leading to the election.

The recent presidential survey featuring personalities and celebrities was also strangely branded as part of a quarterly survey to lend legitimacy.

There are also suspicions of fudged figures in the surveys through the manipulation of the survey methodologies, notably when the two prominent pollsters simultaneously released the results of their surveys conducted almost during identical periods but with contrasting results.

Many ask how the results of the two pollsters' surveys could differ so widely when they supposedly take the pulse of the population using the same formula.

The period before the regular elections is considered a dry spell for survey firms.

Holding an election survey at this time is a financial boon for the polling firms, even though the actual presidential election is four years away.