While the intensity of the sea skirmishes has increased, an armed conflict is not likely as China is making a calculated move using gray zone tactics in asserting its illegal claim on the West Philippine Sea.

Retired Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who has been at the forefront of the pushback against Chinese maritime aggression, cited the principle of Beijing’s “three warfare.”

He explained that the strategy had been approved “by the People’s Congress, the Politburo, and the military commission.”

The strategy is essentially based on intimidating the Philippines into submission and winning the battle for territory “without firing a single shot.”

The first phase is a public relations war that the Philippines has blunted.

“We have exposed that the nine-dash line is a big lie that was ruled upon by the arbitral tribunal, which said there is no historical basis for the claim,” Carpio said.

The second phase involves legal warfare in which the Chinese want to be excluded and exempt from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea because the nine-dash line stretches back 2,000 years, “but that has been debunked also by the tribunal.”

The third phase is intimidating its adversary “with its huge air and naval bases and huge naval fleet.”

China has the largest naval fleet in the world, along with numerous fighter jets and bombers and its huge Coast Guard, the largest Coast Guard in the world, according to Carpio.

Thus, Carpio warned that China would intimidate everybody. “And if you’re dumb enough to be intimidated, you lose, like (former President Rodrigo) Duterte.”

He quoted Duterte as saying, “‘We cannot fight China because it will be a massacre.’” With such a mindset, “you lose.”

Carpio explained that under the three-warfare strategy, China wanted to intimidate its smaller neighbor.

“So in all these three wars of China, it avoids at all costs an armed confrontation because a small skirmish will escalate into a nuclear war, especially against the Philippines simply because we have a mutual defense treaty (with the US),” assessed Carpio.

The Chinese will keep using intimidation through its huge naval bases and employ water cannons, but it will not use arms because Carpio believes “that will draw the Americans in.”

Even if the US fails to live up to its defense treaty with the Philippines, China would be on the losing end.

“If the US does not honor its treaty, other nations in Asia such as Japan and Korea will start doubting the (Americans as an ally) and would be forced to go nuclear,” Carpio said.

He sees a great debate in Japan and Korea about going nuclear — and as of now, an overwhelming majority of South Koreans want to go nuclear.

“So, what will happen is that China will be surrounded by hostile nations with nuclear weapons — you have Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and India if the US will not honor its commitments,” Carpio said.

Nuclear-armed states will surround China.

Thus, it is in the interest of China not to force the US into a situation where it would have to decide whether or not to honor its pact with Asian nations.

However, the dice will roll; Carpio said China would be in a difficult position if it starts firing guns.