Space-dash line

Space-dash line | Daily Tribune

American interest in the ongoing imbroglio in the West Philippine Sea goes beyond friendship or the defense agreement expressed through the oft-repeated expression “iron-clad defense commitment” in a historic alliance.

It involves a new space war that has endless resources outside of the Earth at stake.

A geopolitical expert at the Washington-based think tank United States Institute of Peace, or USIP, believes that China is trying to rewrite international norms in preparation for prospecting for resources in the next frontier, which is space.

Dean Cheng, Senior Advisor of the China Program at USIP, cited the US government’s apprehension over Beijing’s practice of drawing unilateral demarcations such as the 10-dash line to lay claim to practically the entire South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea.

China may exercise the same method to claim territory in outer space.

Cheng said if China succeeds in making the West Philippine Sea part of its territorial waters, “this will set a dangerous precedent for other international common spaces.”

China’s foray into the solar system, starting with a moon exploration, has more of a commercial rather than scientific purpose as it sees space as an infinite source of minerals that are becoming scarce on Earth.

China has an ambitious program of robotic and manned missions on the Moon.

“There are already concerns that China will try to apply gray zone tactics, such as those being employed in the West Philippine Sea, to effectively lay claim to key areas of the Moon,” said Cheng.

Among the areas that attract great commercial interest are the potentially water-rich poles on the Moon or vital areas of space such as the gravitationally stable Lagrange Points.

Lagrange Points are areas in space where the gravitational pull of a two-body system like the Sun and Earth produces regions of attraction and repulsion.

Such positions in space can be used by a spacecraft as a “parking spot” to remain fixed with minimal fuel consumption.

“China’s success in the well-established maritime realm can only embolden its comparable efforts in such new areas as outer space,” according to Cheng.

Areas between the planet and its satellite are potential fountains of immediate commercial gain.

Outer space is significant to the People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, as Chinese military analysts have concluded that future conflicts will almost certainly extend into this realm.

The West relies heavily on space-based information systems for reconnaissance, communications, weather, navigation, and timing information.

A successful effort to degrade Western space systems will badly hinder their military operations in the western Pacific.

Cheng said Chinese authors have discussed the growing importance of cis-lunar space, the space between the Earth and the Moon.

Exploiting outer space is in line with space activities, including robotic landers on the Moon, and the plan is to land Chinese astronauts on it by 2030.

According to Cheng, these efforts are considered essential in supporting Chinese efforts to influence space traffic management.

“A China that is responsible for the bulk of traffic to the Moon would be well positioned to set the terms and standards for space traffic operations,” he said.

The implication would be, “Just as the language of international air travel is English, even between countries that do not speak English, so too is the language of space travel to the Moon likely to be a competition between English and Chinese.”

By the time the Moon is populated, the satellite may have predominantly Mandarin as the medium of communication.

Beijing would have to dig deep into its ingenuity as water cannons are off the list of gray zone tactics when the competition for space turns heated.