The Philippines is now projected to procure 3.9 million metric tons of rice overseas, an inch up from the earlier estimation of 3.8 MT last month, based on the latest report by the United States Department of Agriculture.

“Total imports are forecast virtually unchanged as an increase for Indonesia and the Philippines offset[s] a decrease for China,” the Grain: World Markets and Trade report read.

It added: “Global consumption is up with more imports for Indonesia and the Philippines.”

The USDA attributed the country’s volume increment to “strong recent purchases from Vietnam.”

Indonesia incurred the highest increase, from the previous 2.5 million forecast last year to 2.9 million as of writing. The increase was linked to “continued large government purchases.”

Other countries that increased trade were Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the US.

Meanwhile, China's estimated rice imports for this year declined to 2.3 million MT from the previous 2.8 million MT forecast, with the USDA citing "the demand for foreign rice to weaken as domestic prices remain cheaper.”

The Philippines and Vietnam recently forged a Memorandum of Understanding on Rice Trade Cooperation during the state visit of President Ferdinand ''Bongbong'' Marcos Jr. to Hanoi last month.

Under the MOU, Vietnam will supply the country with 1.5 million to 2 million metric tons of white rice per year at an affordable price.

Stable rice supply

Amid the onslaught of the El Niño phenomenon, the Department of Agriculture assured the public on Thursday that there would be sufficient rice supply in the first half of this year.

According to Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., this is due to recent imports and the nearing harvest, which is expected to peak in March and April.

"We have enough rice supply, so prices should remain stable through the first half of the year. Our priority now is market stability,” he said, also ensuring the stable price of rice through June.

"What we need to guard against now are profiteers who may attempt to exploit the situation by using El Niño as an excuse to hoard rice supply to push local prices to unreasonably high levels,” the agriculture chief said, noting that rice prices may remain high through September due to the potential effects of drought on global rice supply and a possible increase in demand for the crop.

Meanwhile, the National Irrigation Authority also said late last month that the domestic palay harvest is most likely not to fall despite El Niño, due to the government interventions implemented, including the provision of high-yielding varieties of seeds to the affected farmers and alternative wetting and drying technologies.

"Actually, rice prefers sunny weather. Our yield is higher when it's sunny, ” NIA Administrator Engr. Eduardo Guillen said.