China’s brinkmanship at Ayungin, or Second Thomas Shoal, and at Panganiban, or Mischief Reef, reveals a desperate attempt to corner the perceived vast oil and gas resources in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) which it urgently needs for its failing economy due to its industries being hungry for energy.

China may be willing, in its despair, to go for a naval confrontation with the US, which it feels is not ready to go to war. Have they perhaps discovered vast oil-gas reserves?

Ayungin Shoal

Ayungin is a matter of deep concern for the Philippines because it is dangerously close to Palawan, a mere 194 kilometers.

In 1999, the Philippine Navy intentionally ran aground a rusty WW2 US landing ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was acquired after the Vietnam war. It became an island fortress occupied by troops. It is a major geopolitical thorn in China’s throat.

Ayungin is inside the Dangerous Ground, a vast 178,000 km. area west of Palawan, “dangerous” because it is poorly charted and reefs and atolls appear and disappear. It is a navigational nightmare. Singaporean and Hong Kong ships avoid the area and go around it.

China is obsessed with Ayungin for its vast unexplored oil and gas resources. It has no military value, per se, and is near the center of the Dangerous Ground. China doesn’t not want the Phl presence with the Sierra Madre. They have instituted food blockades using laser guns, water cannons, and deliberate collisions. When the Phl sent a diplomatic protest to Beijing, their response was ridiculous, branding their moves as “professional, reasonable, and legal.”

What was professional and legal about water cannons and lasers that can claim lives within the Phl exclusive economic zone?

So, the Phl resorted to food aid using “air drops,” akin to that employed by the Allied Forces to feed West Berlin after WW2. This angered China even more because they could not shoot down these planes without triggering an international incident, just as the Russians were equally helpless in Berlin. So, for now, the Phl has the upper hand until China cooks up a response, or resorts to more bully tactics and brinkmanship.

Adding salt to China’s wounds, the Phl and Vietnam signed an agreement recently with the goals of 1) incident prevention; 2) maritime cooperation.

Panganiban Reef

Panganiban, or Mischief Reef, is in a similar situation — rich in unexplored oil-gas resources, within the Dangerous Ground, and within the Phl EEZ being part of the Kalayaan municipality of Palawan. Like Ayungin, Panganiban is dangerously close, a mere 250 km. to Palawan. Panganiban is a tourist’s dream and a snorkeler’s paradise with a large circular reef surrounding a vast shallow lagoon, with visibility up to 25 to 30 meters deep. China occupied Panganiban in 1995.

In the mid-2010s, China created a large artificial island of about 558 hectares on the circular atoll. A Wikipedia photo in 2018 revealed half of the perimeter reef fully developed on the eastern side, with a 2,700-meter runway and an airfield. This military installation is designed to protect both Ayungin and Panganiban, which are relatively near each other, from future incursions.

Lately, China has resorted to “swarming” with a display of about 200 ships in the Panganiban area with coast guard escorts, near their military base, knowing they have its protection. This is simply a psy-war tactic to test its presence very near Palawan, to see if there’ll be a response from the Phl.

China’s brinkmanship at Panganiban Reef resulted in a massive defense acquisition by the Philippines and related naval games with the US, Japan, and Australia.

China’s quest for energy

may trigger a nuclear war?

China is nervously attempting to acquire much needed energy for its ailing economy and may resort to a naval confrontation with the United States. In response, the US has commissioned three aircraft carriers into the “future” Pacific war theater, hoping the show of force will discourage Beijing from its brinkmanship which may lead to a sudden unexpected nuclear war.