Population dilemma

Last year, the number of newborns in Taiwan was 135,571, resulting in a crude birth rate of 5.82 per 1,000.

This is a decrease compared to figures in 2022, which had a crude birth rate of 5.96 per 1,000, representing a further decline and marking a new historical low in newborn babies in Taiwan.

As a matter of fact, the number of newborns in 2023 was down 30 percent from the 193,844 babies born in 2017, and it continued a steady decline from 181,601 in 2018 to 177,767 in 2019; 165,249 in 2020; 153,820 in 2021; 138,986 in 2022.

According to online platform Statista, the top three countries estimated with the lowest fertility rates in 2023 were Taiwan (1.09 children per woman), South Korea (1.11 children per woman) and Singapore (1.17 children per woman), much lower than the fertility rate in the Philippines (1.9 children per woman) in 2022.

While many couples of childbearing age choose to be child-free or do not dare to have children for work-life balance or economic reasons, some experts assert that the fertility rate of married couples is not dropping but the marriage rate is hitting record lows in countries including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, which is resulting in low birth rates.

Yen-hsin Cheng, demographer in Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, points out that, while low wages, high housing prices and long working hours are all causes leading to women having less babies, the reason people often neglect is that when large number of women begin to receive higher education and enter the workplace, the age of marriage and childbearing are delayed, and the period total fertility rate will consequently decline significantly.

The PTFR is based on a formula which informs about the number of births a woman would have during her reproductive life if her childbearing would be the same as the average of all women in that year.

On the other hand, cohort total fertility rate is the number of live births produced by a particular group of women throughout their reproductive life.

Cheng argues that in some Western countries with higher fertility rates such as Sweden, women are giving birth at an older age, but the number of kids they are having are eventually the same as their parents.

That is why the PTFR is lower but the CTFR stays on the same level. Nonetheless, in many Eastern Asian countries, those who did not get married or have babies between the ages of 15 and 30, either never get married or never give birth in their lifetime, which contributes to the low fertility rates and negative population growth.

In Taiwan, the number of over 40-year-olds who have never married is nearly 1.7 million in 2022, about 10 percent higher than 10 years ago.

At the same time, highly educated women often find it more difficult to find their life partners, and for women who have master’s degrees who are between 30 and 34 years old, 35 and 39 years old, 40 and 44 years old, the unmarried rates reach 57.83 percent, 34.16 percent and 26.35 percent, respectively.

The Taiwan government recorded 205,368 deaths in 2023.

The difference in births and deaths resulted in a natural population decrease of 69,797 people.

Truth is, Taiwan has been experiencing a natural population decrease since 2020. It is estimated that, by 2028, there will be no more demographic dividend, and the labor shortage is likely to rise to 2 million workers by 2031 and 7 million by 2040.

Under the harsh reality of aging population and negative population growth, Taiwan has been hiring professionals and talents from overseas, recruiting international students after they graduate from universities in Taiwan, and encouraging professional foreign workers in productive industries to get the Alien Permanent Resident Certificate.

In addition, since Taiwan recognized same-sex marriage in 2019, and a lot of gay and infertile couples are demanding to legalize surrogate motherhood, the Taiwan government plans to hold public hearings this year to collect opinions and amend the Assisted Reproduction Act accordingly.