Think about what that impact would be if the likely Republican bet, former President Donald J. Trump, a champion of protectionist trade, returns to power.

The year comes to an end with the broader global backdrop fraught with uncertainty, including the risk of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and no letup in Putin's desire to conquer Ukraine, all continuing to cause tremors on the world economy.
Another potential cause for anxiety is the outcome after over two billion people in some 50 countries — including 27 nations of the European Parliament, Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, India, and the United States — cast their votes in national elections in 2024.
Victory at the polls sweeping fiery populists into power could see countries putting more squeeze on trade control and implementing more stringent barriers to immigration. These, fears Cambridge University public policy professor Diane Coyle, could tip the global economy into a world "very different than the one we have been used to."
Inert incomes, depressed living standards, and the widening gap between social classes have caused cynicism over globalization. Points out Coyle, "A world where trade is shrinking is a world of shrinking incomes." She said this could lead to a vicious cycle as the empowering of right-wing nationalists through popular vote could further weaken global growth and an erosion of economic fortunes.
The biggest election next year will happen in India. Currently, the world's fastest-growing economy is competing with China for the status of world manufacturing hub. Meanwhile, the presidential election in Taiwan next month could potentially increase US-China tensions.
But the US presidential election in November will have the most significant impact on the global economy. Think about what that impact would be if the likely Republican bet, former President Donald J. Trump, a champion of protectionist trade, returns to power.
For starters, Trump proposes a 10-percent tariff slapped on ALL goods coming into the US. Think about the consequences of such a contentious move once countries begin to retaliate.
The Republican candidate, who has been leading in all polls, has taken on a posture akin to an authoritarian leader, stating publicly that he would withdraw America's alliances with Europe and support for Ukrainian defense against Russia, and assume a more confrontational position against China. If there's anyone most likely to spark world conflagration, that would be the Mar-A-Lago lord of the manor — if he's handed the keys to the White House once more.
Meanwhile, the financial services group Nomura, with an integrated network spanning some 30 countries across the globe, sees Asia entering its "sweet spot" early next year, with "India, Indonesia and the Philippines the fastest-growing economies this decade."
"Growth in most Asian economies should outperform their Western counterparts in 2024, driven by a semiconductor-led export tailwind and steady domestic demand," the group said in its Asian Macro Outlook for 2024 issued earlier this month. "These drivers should facilitate a soft landing for Asia when real GDP growth falls gently following a policy tightening cycle, in contrast to our forecast for mild recessions in the US and Europe."
However, according to Nomura, Asia could see a more challenging second half of the year "as the US recession unfolds; inflation divergence will be an important theme; and monetary policy will likely pause through the first quarter to give way to rate cuts starting in the second quarter. Over the medium term, we see India, Indonesia and the Philippines as Asia's rising stars."
The group said these are Asian forecast themes as the region surges to 2024.