The provocative but significant civilian-led 40-ship flotilla cruising on the West Philippine Sea is as much directed at China as at apathetic Filipinos.

Barring any unforeseen events, the appropriately dubbed "Christmas Convoy" should have left Palawan today on a novel three-day "peoples' mission" to bring Christmas gifts and provisions to the hardy Filipino fishermen and troops stationed on military outposts in the WPS.

Organized and led by the civilian coalition "Atin Ito!" (This is Ours!), some 200 volunteers on board various types of boats are en route on the fiercely contested waterway where abusive Chinese forces routinely contest legitimate Filipino sovereignty assertions. 

The convoy will travel to the "general vicinity" of the hotly contested Ayungin Shoal, near the beached BRP Sierra Madre.

Initially, convoy organizers planned to board the derelict Sierra Madre and cheer up the marines stationed there, but the authorities barred them out of safety concerns.

The convoy, however, will visit other Philippine-occupied maritime features in the vicinity, including Patag Island, Lawak Island, and Pag-asa Island.

At the Pag-asa Island stop, the convoy will transfer donated Christmas gifts and supplies to the Navy, which will then deliver the donations to the Marines on Ayungin during the Navy's routine rotation and resupply missions.

PCG commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan said Philippine Coast Guard vessels would escort the civilian boats.

China hasn't officially commented on the Christmas convoy as of press time. China, in any case, is widely expected to do so since she might see the convoy as a form of provocation.

"In Manila's version, it's an exercise of a right to travel and for its own citizens to explore the territories of the Philippines, which perhaps may be misconstrued by China again as a provocation," one local security analyst said.

Concerned Filipino officials, however, seem ready for China's response to the convoy, both verbally and physically.

"They (Chinese officials) might do something else. Because they have already done everything else — the laser beam, [water] cannoning — but these are civilians with small boats. They shouldn't do that," said Senator Francis Tolentino after meeting with foreign affairs officials.

Despite the risks and tension, there seems to be an emerging consensus, even among nervous security officials, that the Christmas convoy will do much more good than harm.

According to the "Atin Ito!" coalition, the objective of the convoy is to "demonstrate the Philippines' unwavering commitment to upholding its rights through peaceful, rules-based but resolute means," an essential message not lost on the authorities now on the frontlines of the WPS.

"As our fellow Filipinos set foot on Pag-asa Island, we hope this experience will ignite the spirit of patriotism and inspire them to stand with us in safeguarding the country's sovereign rights within our exclusive economic zone," said PCG's Gavan.

In simple terms, if the convoy succeeds in its intent — with or without any untoward incidents — this stands to be a defining moment by which concerned ordinary Filipinos would have dramatically shown that they are capable personally of doing something against the patent bullying of a foreign power.

Undoubtedly, the 200 or so volunteers aboard the unarmed boats also have high hopes that by their example, more and more Filipinos will shake off their lethargic and apathetic stance towards China's hegemonic ambitions.

At the same time, the convoy will effectively silence cutesy pro-China Filipino pseudo-nationalists who noisily insist that provoking China isn't in our best interest. 

But not provoking China means surrender.

It means accepting in advance that the autonomy of small nations resisting global political visions of big powers expanding their spheres of influence is meaningless.

Of course, I agree that we should prevent any outbreak of physical hostilities. But sometimes, being too cautious only provokes the aggressor, who counts on our reluctance to resist.

So, we ourselves should also handily draw a line on the choppy waters of the WPS precisely to prevent war — as the convoy is doing.