Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. foresees that China will increasingly use the Taiwan nexus to put more pressure on the Philippines and enforce its claimed historical delineation in the West Philippine Sea.
Beijing will not let pass the recent announcement of increased military cooperation between the long-standing allies, including the scaled-up patrols of the disputed seas.
Teodoro said there is a "very, very good possibility" that China will resort to "exploiting" the supposed connection of the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA, sites and the Taiwan situation as a justification to seek more areas of the West Philippine Sea to occupy.
He said increased access of US forces to Philippine bases is "for us purely for internal credible deterrent posture."
"We have to develop Philippine bases throughout the perimeters of the archipelago to secure our territory not only now but for the future," he added.
Geopolitical experts are recognizing a pattern in the recent actions of China as an escalation of its territorial claim agenda through gray zone tactics.
Such schemes are short of actual armed confrontation, like the recent dangerous maneuvers of its vessels to cut off smaller Philippine boats.
Its ringing of the beached Sierra Madre landing ship in Ayungin Shoal was accompanied by a barrage of propaganda involving an unnamed Philippine president as committing the removal of the vessel.
The allegation proved to be a ploy to create intrigue and confusion, which succeeded as it drew in responses from past leaders.
China recently employed more than 50 maritime militia vessels to ring Iroquois Reef and Sabina Shoal, south of Reed Bank.
"The only analysis that we can provide for the presence of these Chinese maritime militias is to swarm a particular maritime feature and to occupy it," Commodore Jay Tarriela, the Philippine Coast Guard's maritime security adviser, said.
More recently, several Chinese coast guard vessels attempted to prevent two Philippine patrol ships in a resupply mission to the Sierra Madre from reaching Ayungin Shoal in the Spratlys.
In response, U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson called on Beijing to comply with a 2016 ruling rejecting its shoal claim.
According to security officials, the real intent is to exploit the resource-rich West Philippine Sea.
China's latest swarm aimed to dissuade the Philippines from oil and gas production at Recto Bank.
Beijing had pressed the Philippines to agree on joint development in this area, but the Supreme Court had ruled that joint exploration violates the Constitution.
Steps taken to increase the joint operations will deter any plans of China to occupy more areas of the disputed territory and develop it into artificial islands as forward operating bases.
Military experts cede the reality that the Philippines can't do it alone and will need the help of its allies, security partners, and other claimant states for effective pushback.
Another must is for the Philippines to continue with its plans to modernize its military, the navy and air force in particular, to increase its capacity to gradually assert its sovereignty over the long term.
While building up its capability, the Philippines, the United States, and other friendly powers such as Japan and Australia need to maintain a continuous naval presence.
Intense reaction from China is expected, but as Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Juan Ponce Enrile had said, the superpower understands equality through might.
Showering the claimants with promises of economic assistance has been the strategy to coopt the region into acquiescence, which is not the right way to keep stability in the region.
